City Discount, Russia Financial News

Yogesh Patil, V-P, Dolat Capital, says Long-term contracts won't be affected by crude sourcing agreements with Russia, but spot purchases of Russian oil, which account for 40-45% of India's imports, will be impacted. Discounts on Russian crude were about $3 per barrel recently, but Indian refiners will now need to source oil from the Middle East without discounts, affecting their gross refining margins. Currently, petrol, diesel, and LPG prices are somewhat frozen, preventing companies from passing increased crude costs to consumers, leading to challenges for OMCs amid rising prices. On a positive note, ONGC and Oil India are expected to report strong results due to a weakening rupee, rising oil prices, and the removal of the windfall gain tax. However, ONGC's stock fell on Monday, likely due to concerns over its investments in Russian assets. How major could be the impact of the new sanctions by the US on Russian oil on global crude oil prices? Where do you see oil prices headed globally? Yogesh Patil: On Friday evening, the Biden administration imposed sanctions on the Russian export oil supply chain and two major oil companies including Gazprom Neft Gas, which are involved in export of closer to one million barrels per day oil on a daily basis. Secondly, they have sanctioned closer to 180 vessels, which are exporting the oil to different nations and lastly on some insurance companies.

The recovery of Russian oil flow to the world's third-largest oil importer and consumer is easing a supply crunch and cooling prices for rival Middle East grades. Russian oil supplies to India and China fell sharply earlier this year following U.S. sanctions on January 10 that targeted producers, insurers, ships and middlemen to curtail Moscow's oil revenue. In March, India's imports of Russian oil, mainly Urals crude, are back at 1.54 million barrels per day (bpd), after falling to 1.1 million to 1.2 million bpd in the previous three months due to concerns about sanctions, data from analytics firm Kpler showed.

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. New Delhi: Gross refining margins of Indian oil refiners are likely to shrink going ahead post fresh sanctions on two Russian oil producers and nearly 200 crude-carrying vessels, according to sector experts. Buyers of cheap Russian oil may now have to look at other sources of oil which are unlikely to be offered at discounts, they said.

Russia captured a larger share of India's crude imports in the just-ended fiscal year despite narrowing discounts on its oil and sanctions imposed by G7 nations due its invasion of Ukraine. The share of Russian oil in India's total imports rose to 35% in 2023-24 from 23% in the previous year, according to energy cargo tracker Vortexa. During the year, all other key suppliers, including Iraq, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and the US lost share in the Indian market. Iraq's share fell to 20% (from 21%). Similar drops were noted for Saudi Arabia (15% from 17.5%), UAE (6% from 9%), and the US (3.5% from 5.5%). Russia supplied 1.57 million barrels a day (mb/d) in FY24, up from 1mb/d in the previous year. Iraq's supply of 0.89 mb/d in 2023-24 was lower than 0.95 mb/d in the previous year. Saudi's supply fell to 0.69 mb/d from 0.78 mb/d.

India's imports of Russian oil fell in August to a seven-month low as refiners curbed purchases due to planned maintenance outages at some plants and lower discounts for Russian grades. However, oil imports from Saudi Arabia surged to a multi-month high, according to preliminary data from Kpler and Refinitiv trade flows. Refiners in India have been snapping up discounted Russian oil after some Western buyers shunned purchases over Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February last year. But India's monthly imports of Russian oil have been declining since June as discounts began to shrink, the data from the two agencies show. «Imports of Russian oil are likely to remain at subdued levels for a couple of months due to lower discounts, and that would force suppliers of Russian oil to provide deeper discounts,» said Refinitiv analyst Ehsan Ul Haq. Discounts on Russian oil for October loading are below $5 a barrel to benchmark dated Brent, a refinery source said, adding his company had not yet placed an order for October Russian oil. Buying Russian oil in spot markets gives Indian refiners greater flexibility than Middle Eastern purchases that are mostly under annual contracts. A government source last month said Indian refiners could cut imports of Russian oil as narrowing discounts were raising the price of Russian grades to above the $60 per barrel ceiling set by Western nations. India's Russian oil imports in August declined by a fifth from July to about 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) while those from Saudi Arabia leapt by about 63%, according to Refinitiv data. According to Kpler estimates, India imported 1.35 million bpd of Russian oil in August, down from about 1.9 million bpd in July.

Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL), Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd and HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd as well as private refiners Reliance Industries Ltd and Nayara Energy Ltd continue to negotiate deals with Russia separately. The discounts could have been higher if state-controlled units, who account for roughly 60% of the 2 million barrels per day of Russian oil flowing into India, negotiated together.

The Indian government has asked state oil companies to scoop up huge volumes of cheap crude from Russia, according to industry executives, strengthening commercial ties with the country even as the West tightens sanctions on Moscow.