Citi Research News

Vodafone Idea shares surged 7% intraday Monday after the government waived off the need for bank guarantees, a move that, analysts said, is expected to unblock the telco’s road to raise fresh bank funding and also benefit its tower vendor Indus Towers.

Bharti Airtel’s revenue growth was higher than larger rival Reliance Jio’s which lost 11 million subscribers, analysts said, indicating a higher resilience from the nation’s second largest telecom operator. In addition, brokerage Citi Research said it does not expect the change in leadership in Airtel which was announced Monday to be very disruptive. “This should be further supported by Bharti’s strong established credentials and our view that the peak of competitive intensity is behind us”. Market analysts said that Airtel’s user loss was mainly amongst low-ARPU (average revenue per user) subscribers, which combined with 0.8 million net additions in the postpaid user base, showed the Sunil Mittal-led operator’s success in premiumising its subscriber mix.

Vodafone Idea (Vi) out of the proceeds of a likely sale of its balance 3.1% holding in Indus Towers, said analysts who added that this may be used to clear a portion of the Indian telco's dues to the tower company. Vi may also make more substantial payments to Indus towards cutting its dues after the telco raises debt of ₹23,000-25,000 crore through term loans as planned, they added. After the recent sale of its 18% stake in Indus, UK's Vodafone holds 3.1% of the tower company and is said to be in talks with Bharti Airtel to sell these shares, people familiar said. Earlier talks between the two parties got stuck over valuation differences but the latest discussions may yield results, said the people cited above.

Vodafone Idea and Reliance Jio bought spectrum worth ₹11,340 crore in the just-concluded spectrum sale, which will be paid to the government in 20 annual instalments. The first instalment is likely to be in the range of ₹500-570 crore for all three carriers combined. The selective and strategic purchases indicate a focus on monetizing existing investments into spectrum before spending on additional capex.

Oil prices eased for a fourth straight day on Thursday on worries that U.S. borrowing costs could be hiked again if inflation surged, a move that could hurt oil demand. Brent crude futures fell 27 cents, or 0.3%, to $81.63 a barrel at 0004 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) futures were down 35 cents, or 0.5%, at $77.14.

Meaningful rises or falls in global government bond yields look unlikely in the near term as interest rates have peaked but persistent inflation means rate cuts will likely be slow, analysts said. Money market forwards price in 42 basis points of rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve, 65 basis points by the European Central Bank and 55 basis points by the Bank of England for this year, according to Refinitiv.

Indus Towers, India's leading tower company, could post 8% compound annual growth rate in operating income through FY24-27 if key customer Vodafone Idea (Vi) closes its much-awaited ₹45,000 crore fundraise on schedule and invests in network expansion, analysts said. Cash-strapped Vi said it will open a sale of new shares on April 18 and close on April 22 to raise up to ₹18,000 crore. This will be closely followed by a ₹25,000-crore fundraising via debt. The company has already approved raising ₹2,075 crore from a promoter entity through a preferential share issue. "...we are enthused by progress on the (Vi) fund raise and believe this should drive further upside for Indus Towers," Citi Research said in a recent report.

The latest U.S. January inflation data came in like a «punch in the stomach» for the Federal Reserve, which raises the possibility for an aggressive 50 basis points rate hike in March, the global chief economist of Citi Research said.