Economy Financial News

Circle Squared Alternative Investments' Jeff Sica argues there's a problem in the credit market as he weighs in on the market selloff.

Federal Reserve economist Claudia Sahm has expressed concerns that while the US isn't currently in a recession, it is alarmingly close. She predicts that central bank policymakers might need to adjust their strategies in response to the increasing risks. On Bloomberg Television’s Bloomberg Surveillance program, Sahm commented on the unexpected rise in the unemployment rate in July’s employment report, noting that this trend is historically consistent with the early stages of a recession. Although she acknowledged that the US might not be in a recession yet, the situation is precariously close. The report revealed a significant slowdown in US hiring and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3%. This caused the three-month moving average to exceed the 12-month low by half a percentage point, activating the Sahm Rule. Sahm developed this statistical measure to guide fiscal policymakers on when to stimulate the economy to counteract a recession.

The red numbers in your 401(k) today might appear to vindicate warnings about an artificial-intelligence bubble and infirm economy. But don’t start tilting your portfolio toward full pessimism just yet. The S&P 500 opened down about 4% Monday, with the Nasdaq falling a larger 6%.

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee on Monday vowed that the central bank would react to signs of weakness in the economy and indicated that interest rates could be too restrictive now.

Travel expert Lee Abbamonte joins ‘The Big Money Show’ to discuss Americans traveling to other countries where the dollar carries more weight.

Dispatches of passenger vehicles last month, though, declined by about 2% with automakers limiting wholesales amid elevated stock levels in the market. As per industry estimates inventory of passenger vehicles in the channel stands at 407,000 units. Dealers peg the numbers higher and said car stocks in the network range between 67-72 days. Auto retailers body FADA (Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations), however, expect good retails in the upcoming festive season. Challenges though remain due to high stocks in the passenger vehicle segment, weak consumer sentiments in certain areas stemming from economic uncertainties and uneven spread of the monsoons.

Federal Reserve is to act with urgency, cutting its policy rate a percentage point to 4.25%-4.5% by the end of the year in the name of risk management. It’s a level of easing that the Fed is likely to undertake even if the rise in unemployment ends up being somewhat benign since we no longer need such restrictive rates to tame inflation. It makes sense to frontload those rate cuts rather than run the risk of being too slow to act to forestall worse economic outcomes. If we really are heading into recession, there’s not much disagreement on what the Fed should do: Cut interest rates a lot and fast. That’s where market pricing has shifted after a rocky week of economic data. Interest rate futures suggest the Fed will cut its policy rate by over 200 basis points by the end of 2025, taking the fed funds rate down near 3%. This seems reasonable based on what we’ve seen in prior recessions.

Gulf countries during the June to September holiday season have risen five-fold, causing financial hardships to poor labourers and the middle class migrants who want to visit India, a Rajya Sabha member said on Monday, asking the government to stop this "organised loot". Raising the issue +through a Zero Hour mention in the House, Jebi Mather Hisham (Congress) said June-September is normally a school holiday season in the Middle East countries but this has turned into a «horror season» due to the «exorbitant, exploitative and extortionist» airfares implemented by the airlines. «We call it organised loot because it (the fare hike) has not doubled or tripled but has increased by more than five times,» she said. Against the one-way fare of Rs 8,000 from Gulf countries to Kerala, a poor labourer is now having to shell out Rs 46,000 one-way and about Rs 1 lakh for return fare.

Japan's Nikkei 225 index nosedived on Monday (5 August) by as almost 13%, having dropped 5.9% before the weekend in its biggest two-day slump on record, according to data from MarketWatch. The fall comes amid concerns over a US recession after traders reacted to lower-than-expected employment figures from the world's largest economy on Friday (2 August), which collided with worries from investors and analysts that the US Federal Reserve may have delayed beginning its rate cutting regime for too long.  Market Movers Blog: Concerns over US recession lead to global stock slump Elsewhe...

Mint in June compared to their performance six months ago, as per the latest Mint macro tacker. Eight of these indicators were above their five-year average trends, whereas three were below it. In comparison to six months ago, only six of these indicators were above their five-year average and four were below it.

While there are many ways to measure economic inequality, key metrics consistently show that disparities are getting worse. According to a recent United Nations report, 71% of the world’s population now live in countries where inequality has increased. Unsurprisingly, this includes India and China.

This figure was significantly below the average monthly gain of 215,000 over the previous 12 months. According to data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics today (2 August), total nonfarm payrolls came in lower than anticipated, after economists surveyed by Factset estimated an 175,000 increase in July and the unemployment rate expected to hold at 4.1%.  Federal Reserve holds firm on bank rate as hopes of a September cut rise Healthcare employment continued to trend upwards, adding the most jobs of any sector in July at 55,000, just shy of the sector's average monthly gain...

Bitcoin’s price has continued to dip dramatically on Monday morning as it fell below $50,000, registering a staggering 20% decrease in the last 24 hours on the heels of global markets meltdown.

In 2021-22, India received its highest foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow of $84 billion. Two years later, that number was down by nearly half to $44 billion. The reasons are both external and internal to India.

Sumant Sinha, chairman and managing director of Gurgaon-based ReNew, was recently appointed co-chair of the Switzerland-based Alliance of CEO Climate Leaders. This private sector collective has about 130 global chief executive officers from 26 countries representing 12 industries. Apart from ReNew, at an institutional level, there are eight other Indian companies that are part of this group.

Bitcoin (BTC) selling continued over the weekend, with the cryptocurrency plummeting nearly 15% over the last week, its largest seven-day decline since the collapse of bankrupt crypto exchange FTX in November 2022. The sharp downturn carried over into Monday's Asian session, taking bitcoin to its lowest level since February.

There is more than one way to skin a cat," goes an old English proverb, which means that there are many ways to accomplish the same task. In central bank-speak, the equivalent would perhaps be: “There is more than one way to effect a soft-landing," that holy grail of central banks the world over. For, going by their actions, especially in recent times, there is no single path to getting there.

B. Riley Wealth Management chief market strategist Art Hogan discusses how investors can make money in a turbulent market on «Making Money.»

Elon Musk said on Sunday the Federal Reserve needs to cut interest rates and that it was foolish for the U.S. central bank not to have done so already. Musk's comment, which was made in response to a post on the social media site X, followed a run of weak data last week that has sparked worries the Fed may have left interest rates elevated for too long, resulting in damage to the economy.

Fitch Ratings noted that elevated interest rates in the US since 2023 have begun to show some effect on the labour market and demand. Adding to worries, the global rating agency said politics remains an area of high uncertainty, with geopolitical risks here to stay. The rating agency noted that signs of a slowdown in the US are evident in weak credit growth and slowing consumer spending. This trend is expected to continue in the second half of 2024, with real GDP growth decelerating, though likely remaining above recession territory.