Richard Carter News

21.01 / 08:55

markets COST UPS Research 'Cracks are starting to appear' in UK labour market as unemployment rises to 4.4%

At the same time, the estimated number of payrolled employees fell by 32,000 between October and November 2024, although was up 95,000 from a year prior. Cost of Labour Force Survey revamp nearly doubles in a year to £40.4m In the three months to November, however, the number of payrolled employees decreased by 11,000, while the number of vacancies dropped 24,000 in the last quarter of the year to 812,000. Richard Carter, head of fixed interest research at Quilter Cheviot, argued that even though the UK labour market had been holding «relatively steady» as it faced many economic he...

08.01 / 13:47

COST UPS Fallout reports 'Bad news' for Labour as surging gilt yields puts pressure on government's debt management

According to data from MarketWatch, the UK 30-Year gilt – an indicator for long-term borrowing costs – is up 21.2% since the beginning of the year, standing at 5.34% at the time of reporting. Yesterday (7 January), the yield hit 5.212%, surpassing the levels seen in the fallout of Liz Truss' Mini Budget back in 2023 and set a new record for the millennium. The 10-Year gilt is 20.9% higher since 1 January 2025, reaching 4.78% this morning. Higher yields prompt investors to pour into fixed income funds as UK equities break outflow spell Richard Carter, head of fixed interest at Q...

10.06 / 08:17

economy Research trends reports Rate Cut Fed rate cut 'off the table' as US economy adds 272,000 jobs

This marks an increase in the 175,000 pace notched in April and a higher average monthly gain than the 232,000 over the past twelve months. Wall Street had forecast an increase of around 185,000 jobs. The May employment report also revealed a slight stimulation of average hourly earnings growth from 0.2% in April to 0.4% in May. This means that the average hourly earnings have increased by 4.1% over the past twelve months. Richard Carter, head of fixed interest research at Quilter Cheviot, said: «With average hourly earnings also continuing to trend upwards in the US, this data has t...

10.04 / 14:57

Target Research track Rate Cut US inflation spike to 3.5% tempers Fed rate cut expectations

The Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed the US Consumer Price Index rose to an annual rate of 3.5% in March, an increase from February's figure of 3.2%. Similarly to February, shelter and gasoline were the biggest contributors, responsible for over half of the monthly increase in the index for all items. Jerome Powell: Rate cuts likely as US inflation is on track to meet target Richard Carter, head of fixed interest research at Quilter Cheviot, said the figures have «dashed any remaining hopes» for a May rate cut, as CPI is «firmly» above the Fed's 2% target and has been heading i...

17.01 / 09:33

inflation Bank of England UK GDP UK inflation Premier Miton UK inflation unexpectedly rises to 4% in December

Prior to this morning’s data release, some economists had brought forward predictions for Bank of England rate cuts, expecting potential easing in May or June.

12.01 / 09:01

economics UK GDP Chancellor of the Exchequer Neil Birrell Office for National Statistics UK GDP grows 0.3% in November but fails to alleviate 'precarious' economic situation

Overall GDP growth was a reverse of the 0.3% contraction seen in October, bringing UK growth flat over the two consecutive periods.

22.12 / 12:57

economics UK GDP Office for National Statistics Construction UK economy teeters on recession following revised ONS figures

Within the economy, the services sector's output has been revised down from a 0.1% fall to a 0.2% fall over Q3, while the production and construction sectors have been revised upwards, to 0.1% and 0.4% growth, respectively.

20.12 / 10:55

economics inflation UK CPI Office for National Statistics UK inflation falls further than expected in November to 3.9%

The fall defied expectations, as economists had forecast inflation to decrease to 4.4% for the month, from 4.6% in October 2023.

12.12 / 10:03

economics inflation Bank of England UK Interest rates Unemployment UK wage growth slows as unemployment remains steady

The data comes in advance of the Bank of England's meeting to set interest rates later this week.

08.12 / 15:59

economics Federal Reserve Global US economy Unemployment US economy beats expectations with 199,000 jobs added in November

'While job growth is falling compared to last year, it is holding up remarkably well in the face of a tough economic picture and slowing growth globally.'

03.11 / 14:45

economics Federal Reserve US Macroeconomics Evelyn Partners US economy 'finally showing signs of cracks' with lacklustre October jobs numbers

The unemployment rate ticked up from 3.8% in September to 3.9%, up by 0.5 percentage points from its low point in April.

12.10 / 13:27

economics UK GDP Office for National Statistics UK economy UK economy bounces back in August as GDP ticks up 0.2%

In the three months to August, GDP increased by 0.3% when compared with the three months to May 2023, with growth in all sectors.

29.09 / 12:19

markets economics UK growth Recession GDP UK recession 'can still be avoided' as GDP grows 0.2% in Q2

'The BoE has an incredibly difficult job to do, and with next year likely to see a general election at the same time, they will not want to overcorrect and tip the balance of power one way or another.'

22.03 / 10:47

COST UPS Action Boeing UK inflation rate breaks 3-month stretch of declines with surprise rise to 10.4%

U.K. inflation unexpectedly jumped in February, as food and energy bills continued to rise, placing further pressure on households.

16.02 / 09:51

UPS FIVE Action Strategy HSBC A 'cocktail' of sticky inflation and a tight labor market boosts Bank of England rate hike bets

LONDON — A tight labor market and comparatively slow return to earth for inflation means the Bank of England is likely to press ahead with a further interest rate hike in March, economists suggest.

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