UK economy teeters on recession following revised ONS figures

investmentweek.co.uk:

Within the economy, the services sector's output has been revised down from a 0.1% fall to a 0.2% fall over Q3, while the production and construction sectors have been revised upwards, to 0.1% and 0.4% growth, respectively.

Data for Q3 2023 show UK GDP fell 0.1% from July to September, revised down from a first estimate of no growth, while Q2 GDP has also been revised down from slim growth of 0.2% to zero growth.

Q1 2023 and all quarters of 2022 remain unrevised on a headline level, although the ONS confirmed there were revisions to individual components.

Fund managers 'most upbeat' since January 2022 but growth expectations remain pessimistic

Within the economy, the services sector's output has been revised down from a 0.1% fall to a 0.2% fall over Q3, while the production and construction sectors have been revised upwards, to 0.1% and 0.4% growth, respectively.

Richard Carter, head of fixed interest research at Quilter Cheviot, said the «surprise» contraction in the economy highlighted «just how much of a strain there currently is on the UK economy», while as a result of the combination of Q2 and Q3 revision, the UK «has barely scraped by without a recession in 2023».

«Growth is weakening and interest rates are really beginning to bite and while a recession has just been avoided to date, there is no guarantee one will be avoided in 2024,» he said. «You just have to look at October's -0.3% reading to see that growth is trending further in the wrong direction.

UK inflation falls further than expected in November to 3.9%

»This is going to ratchet the pressure up on the Bank of England to cut interest rates. The government would certainly like this given 2024 is likely to be an election year, but ultimately the BoE will