Economy likely to see good vibes in 2024

livemint.com:

Piramal Enterprises Ltd, said growth is being largely powered by public capital expenditure, which empirically has a very high multiplier effect on the rest of the economy. “However, some of the other engines of the economy need to pick up to ensure sustainability of this high growth. As far as September quarter data is concerned, private consumption, agriculture and services sectors seem to be slipping into a slow track.

A revival in private capex may prove to be a catalyst for these remaining engines of growth," said Chaudhuri. “A likely slippage in growth in FY25 down to 6.5% will further delay India’s full-fledged recovery from the income loss due to covid. RBI’s own estimates suggest that to restore Indian GDP to pre-covid trajectory, it will take 7-7.5% of sustained growth over the next 8-9 years," he added.

In October, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had revised India’s economic growth forecast for the current fiscal year to 6.3% from its earlier forecast of 6.1%, citing strong domestic consumption, while cutting its growth forecasts for China and the euro region. Following the cue, other agencies like Morgan Stanley, Citi and Goldman Sachs, too, raised GDP growth forecasts for India for FY24. While Morgan Stanley revised India’s GDP growth forecast target by 50 basis points to 6.9% for FY24, Goldman Sachs revised the calendar year growth forecast by 20 basis points to 6.7%.

Citi said the economy could grow 50 basis points higher than its earlier forecast to 6.7% on-year in FY24. Retail inflation measured by consumer price index (CPI) saw a sharp spike this year. After sprinting to a 15-month high of 7.4% in July, led by an increase in food prices, it fell to a four-month low of 4.87% in October and surged