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US recession is very slowly becoming a distant possibility, looking at the latest economic data, that is slowly pointing towards a downward trend in US stocks. US recession fears have begun mounting steadily over the course of time, since early August, and the July jobs data somehow became a triggering factor after the employment rate began growing steadily. Even though the US stock markets was able to recover from previous dips related to the employment data, but there are major issues still persisting in the markets, which are working against the economy, and have chances to bring in recession into the United States.

Labour productivity at Canadian businesses fell by 0.2 per cent during the second quarter of 2024, with 11 of the 16 main industries recording declines, Statistics Canada said on Thursday.

ST Telemedia Global Data Centres (STT GDC) on Friday announced an investment of $3.2 billion (Rs 26,000 crore) to expand its data centre capacity in India by 550 megawatts over the next five to six years. This will nearly triple the Singapore-headquartered data centre company’s IT load capacity to meet the demands of India's thriving digital economy, it said in a statement. STT GDC India, in which Tata Communications holds a minority stake, has 28 data centres across 10 cities, with a combined capacity of more than 318 megawatt of IT load. It has about 1,000 enterprise customers.

index India VIX jumped 10% to hit the day's high of 15.57 on Friday as Nifty fell by over 300 points to hit a low of 24,839.40, over US economy data concerns, a key indicator of rate cuts. Investors await US jobs data that could decide the size and speed of coming rate cuts in the world's largest economy. This week, VIX has jumped by 11% after remaining on a declining curve for a month. In the last one month, India VIX has fallen by 25%.

Former Trump administration economist Stephen Moore analyzes what it means for the macroeconomy if job growth was significantly overestimated.

net zero by the middle of the century and align itself with the Paris Agreement, according to BloombergNEF, a target that’s unlikely to be met due to the government’s push for the continued use of coal. The world’s third-biggest emitter needs $12.4 trillion in investment to reach net zero ahead of its official target of 2070, BNEF said in its New Energy Outlook for India published Thursday. That includes funding to accelerate clean energy deployment, large-scale adoption of electric vehicles, and scaling up new technologies like carbon capture and green hydrogen to decarbonize the coal-dependent economy. The report comes as India expands renewables but remains heavily reliant on coal to meet the power needs of the world’s largest population, prompting calls for it to be more ambitious in weaning itself off the dirtiest fossil fuel to support the Paris Agreement goal of keeping global warming below 2C (3.6F).

shares slipped for a fifth straight session on Friday as caution prevailed ahead of the crucial U.S. jobs data, the last such labour market report before the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision on Sept. 18. The pan-European STOXX 600 index fell 0.4% by 0711 GMT. The index has dropped 3% so far this week, set to snap its four-week winning streak.

upcoming interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve has been a key talking point in the Indian stock market over the past few weeks. While discussions around Fed rate cuts have been recurring for over a year, it appears that the much-anticipated shift is finally on the horizon. The US Fed is poised to initiate its rate-cutting cycle, with the first reduction expected on 18 September, coinciding with the next Fed meeting.

Markets Today asked our Instagram followers what they wanted to know. The questions ranged from how to gauge the outlook for the economy and currencies, to trends in stock trading and how to approach a company earnings report. Here — in a lightly edited transcript — are our answers. What are the risks of a recession? As luck would have it, Bloomberg tracks the aggregate view of economists on this very question, so we can see what the current view is, and how that has changed over time.

capital gains in the total personal income of individual investors is expected to jump to 12-15% in FY24, according to Jefferies estimates. The brokerage has premised its findings on a four-to-five-fold increase in the number of individuals reporting short- and long-term capital gains in the period between FY19 and FY23. Jefferies’ head of India research Mahesh Nandurkar, in the latest Greed & Fear report, puts forth his analysis on the personal income tax data, highlighting the jump in capital gains from 4% in FY19 to 11% in FY22 while pegging the the capital gains share at 12-15% in FY24E.

Shaktikanta Das has emphasized the importance of addressing the 'last mile' in disinflation, a critical step in reducing inflation further. Speaking at a conference organized by FICCI and IBA, Das noted that while progress has been made, the central bank must successfully navigate this final stretch to uphold the credibility of India's monetary policy framework. Das's comments are interpreted as a signal that the RBI might maintain its current interest rates longer than anticipated before considering a shift in its monetary policy stance. In earlier remarks, he had highlighted the challenges of managing inflation, particularly due to persistent food price hikes. He likened inflation to an «elephant in the room,» explaining that although the elephant had left for a walk, the RBI's goal was to ensure it returned to the forest permanently. Also Read: Lower Q1 GDP numbers a blip, no letup in growth, says RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das

Shares of Nvidia and other Big Tech stocks have helped power the markets run to record highs this year. Their recent wobble is making investors nervous. A tumble in the chipmaker's shares shaved $279 billion off Nvidia's market capitalization on Tuesday, the single largest one-day decline in market value on record for a U.S. company. The stock was rebounding on Wednesday, rising 1% in late morning trading. Whether the steep fall is due to investors becoming more cautious towards the artificial intelligence trend that supercharged market returns this year or worries over the health of the U.S. economy, more trouble for Nvidia and other Big Tech stocks would likely spell trouble for the broader markets.

Fed Chief Jerome Powell unambiguously stated at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium that “the time has come for policy to adjust.” Clearly, barring unforeseen circumstances, the rate-cutting cycle in the US will start in September. Powell’s comment, “the upside risk to inflation has diminished and the downside risk to unemployment has increased,” is, without any doubt, a more dovish message than the markets had expected.

Friday’s monthly jobs report will likely mark a pivotal moment for the economy and the Federal Reserve

«There is nothing which signals a slowdown. All leading indicators just say that it is just back to getting normal. The other point Federal Reserve has to keep in mind is, what is the runway they have? Look, they started from zero percent and which was anyway a very abnormal emergency measure,» says Anurag Singh, Managing Partner, Ansid Capital. At Jackson Hole, we heard the Fed chair, Jerome Powell, saying that the time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear, he said, and the timing and pace of rate cuts is going to depend on incoming data. The evolving outlook, the balance of risks and he also said that it seems unlikely that the labour market is going to be a source of elevated inflationary pressures any time soon. We do not seek, he says, or welcome further cooling in the labour market conditions. But looking at the labour data now with some pockets in the market supporting this 25 basis point rate cut in September, November, and December, what is your sense of the size and pace of rate cuts that the Fed will go with? Anurag Singh: First of all, there is no panic in the economy anyways. So, there is no point, markets can behave and do what they do. But the economy overall is just getting back to normal. I mean, you see all the unemployment rate, quits rate, hiring rate, ratio of unemployed to jobs those kind of numbers are just about getting back to where they were in 2019 or 2020, just before the pandemic started.

financial services sector, with banks playing a pivotal role, a report released by Boston Consulting Group (BCG) in association with FICCI and Indian Banks’ Association has said. The report titled “Banking for a Viksit Bharat” says that since India, is a predominantly bank-led economy, it will require the banking sector to play an anchor role while the other financial asset classes continue to grow much faster. This will require $4 trillion of capital base in banks, one-third of which will have to be fresh capital deployment, the report said. India's banking system is in a strong position today – characterized by high profitability, robust capital adequacy, and low levels of non-performing assets (NPAs).

Arvind Sanger, Founder & Managing Partner, Geosphere Capital Management, says India benefits from moderate crude prices, but it does not benefit when crude prices are showing weakness because there are concerns about global recession. So you should be careful what you wish for. You do not want crude to be crashing to a level that would suggest that global economies are in a concerted fashion going through a major slowdown. If crude stays moderate in the $70-80 range but does not meaningfully roll over, that would be probably the best outcome from an Indian standpoint.

Asian shares are trading mixed ahead of a highly anticipated U.S. jobs report that’s expected to influence how the U.S. Federal Reserve will move on interest rates

Geoff Dennis, Independent Emerging Markets Commentator, says the Chinese economy is struggling, and there is no obvious reason why that growth rate is going to turn upward in the near term. Also, although the US economy is in reasonable shape and ought to avoid recession, the chances of an acceleration in growth in the US are relatively limited. So, he does not see a big surge in oil prices despite delay in output increase. What is your reading of OPEC Plus's decision to stall the hike in production by two months? This has had a knee-jerk reaction on crude oil prices, which were on a very slippery slope. But do you think the price rise will be sustained? Geoff Dennis: What is happening here is that they are forming the bottom end of a trading range. It was inevitable at some point that OPEC Plus would delay this output increase because there have been several factors pulling crude oil prices lower in the last few weeks, including worries about the US economy, worries about the Chinese economy, expectations that Libyan oil will come back on the market shortly – although that is not a big factor. Also, US inventories have been pretty strong.

Sri Lanka will hold its presidential election Sept. 21 in a crucial vote that will decide the future course of the South Asian nation still struggling to recover from its economic collapse in 2022, which provoked mass protests and forced the former pre...

Tanvee Gupta Jain, UBS Chief India Economist. In an interview with ETMarkets, Tanvee said: “The potential growth I estimate is somewhere between 6.5% to 7%. What we’re seeing is that India’s potential growth is benefiting from digitalization adoption, increased services exports, and now a manufacturing push” Edited excerpts: