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The economy appears to be on a stable footing ahead of the Union budget. Growth clocked 6.5% in 2024-25, public capital expenditure crossed ₹11 trillion, its highest share of GDP in 15 years, and inflation has largely stayed within the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) tolerance band.Yet, a troubling imbalance lies beneath the macro aggregates. Private capital has not responded with the breadth or momentum one would expect at India’s current stage of development.

Every month, Mint Plain Facts brings out an update on key global data to thread together the biggest developments in the world that are worth paying attention to. The accompanying analysis and charts explain how each story is creating ripples on the global stage, where it is headed in the coming weeks, and whether it can impact India.In 2025, major central banks began easing interest rates as inflation pressures moderated, but the pace and extent of cuts varied widely across countries.

When elevated valuations and fresh supply of equity could moderate market returns, investors could consider putting their money in equity schemes – with the flexibility to manoeuvre across sectors and market capitalizations – and in asset allocation schemes with a greater tilt towards equity, Sankaran Naren, executive director and chief investment officer at ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund, said in an interview with Mint.Naren advises restraint while making standalone investments in precious metals like gold and silver at current prices, adding that exposure to them could at best be taken through multi-asset strategies or via asset allocation. The markets are closely tracking the impending Indo-US trade deal, he added.

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capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on charges ranging from drug smuggling to electoral subversion has injected fresh uncertainty into global markets, lifting gold prices while pushing oil marginally lower.Since Venezuela holds the world’s largest oil reserves—about 303 billion barrels—crude initially drew market attention. Oil prices, however, have remained muted amid weak demand and existing supply overhangs.

First, trade pacts serve as instruments of political signalling, allowing India to deepen strategic partnerships while preserving strategic autonomy.Second, they function as tools for hedging risks in an uncertain global trade environment, helping diversify economic relationships and reduce over-dependence on China.Third, deeper engagements provide greater protection for investors by clarifying rules on investment, dispute settlement and regulation.Finally, bilateral agreements help pre-empt exclusion amid the formation of trade blocs that increasingly mirror geopolitical alignments.Our agreements with Oman and New Zealand illustrate this shift. Neither is a major merchandise trade partner.

India’s economy is at an inflection point. On one hand, we aspire to become a $5 trillion economy soon and project a bold vision of a Viksit Bharat by 2047. On the other, our economic reality tells a humbling story—just as we did not achieve the $5 trillion mark in 2025, as originally envisaged, the vision of ‘developed’ status by 2047 will not be realized if our GDP grows at its current rate.

There is no contradiction between paying gig workers a living wage and the claim that gig work provides job opportunities to many who would otherwise struggle to earn anything. Delivery workers for food delivery and quick-commerce platforms like Zomato, Swiggy, Zepto and Blinkit went on strike recently, demanding better wages and work conditions.This has triggered a bizarre debate online, as if asking for better wages amounts to socialism and charges of gig worker exploitation go against entrepreneurship. The obvious gainers from low-paid gig work are consumers who get doorstep deliveries both extra-cheap and ultra-fast.

₹599 and ₹999 per person, with Perspectives taking a 20% commission.If the loneliness economy has a defining characteristic, it is that many of its founders did not arrive with market research or business plans. Most began by trying to solve a personal, unmet need.Originally from Tamil Nadu’s textile hub of Tiruppur, Krishna Rubiga moved to Chennai for work in 2024 and struggled to make friends. Singles mixers felt crowded and transactional.

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₹8,000 crore, with assets surpassing ₹9,000 crore across 55 plants across India, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Egypt.Often seen in impeccably tailored suits, he possessed a quiet, scholarly gravitas, though his interests spanned flying and painting. In his definitive biography of Birla, author Minhaz Merchant captures the essence of a man who managed to be both a “soft-spoken, sensitive individual” and a “hard-driving, visionary industrialist”.This refinement was anchored by a fierce sense of national pride.

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Supreme Court ends up striking down President Trump’s tariffs: “I think that possibility is being overlooked a bit. It could reduce inflationary pressures, allow more rate cuts and accelerate the economy.”Tech bulls point out a key difference between now and the dot-com bubble: Today’s most-valuable companies, such as Nvidia, Microsoft and Alphabet, are some of the most profitable in history.

The animal spirits seem to be stirring, but the scoreboard tells a mixed story. New project announcements rose nearly 16% sequentially in the October-December quarter (Q3 FY26), almost doubling the momentum seen in the previous three months.

₹12 trillion in FY27, according to two people aware of the matter. The move signals that public investment will continue to play a central role in supporting growth as private capex remains uneven and global uncertainty persists.The proposal reflects the government's continued reliance on infrastructure spending to support domestic demand amid geopolitical risks, trade uncertainty and volatile financial conditions that have kept private investors cautious.The planned increase assumes the government will close the current financial year without fiscal slippage despite sharp cuts in goods and services tax (GST) and income tax rates, aided by savings on the revenue account and improved fund utilization by implementing agencies, one of the people cited above said.In FY26, the Centre allocated ₹11.21 trillion for capital expenditure, marking a 10% jump over the previous year’s revised estimates, along with an additional ₹3.9 trillion as grants to states for their own capital spending.

US Federal Reserve fueled this cycle by keeping its policy rate “low for long” after the 2008 global financial crisis. For too many, “long” was interpreted as “forever.” They simply took it for granted that US growth would be consistently higher than the real interest rate on government debt, which itself would remain exceptionally low by historical standards.

release of a highly competitive chatbot caused a sensation in early 2025. Dubbed the “DeepSeek moment,” it immediately prompted analogies to the Soviet Union’s launch of Sputnik in 1957. But do such spectacles really mean that China is closing the gap with the West?In considering that question, it is important to bear in mind that no industrial revolution has ever emerged outside advanced democratic capitalism.

Fed independence by finding a way to distinguish it from other agencies over which the president has asserted a right to remove “principal” officers at will. Regardless of the outcome of litigation over the attempt to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, though, the central bank’s independence already has been significantly impaired.For example, Trump has asserted that all interpretations of law and review of agency expenditures, including by the Fed, fall within the purview of the White House and Justice Department.

2014 invasion of Crimea, when the West told Ukrainians to stand down and tacitly accepted Russian control of the peninsula. On the eve of the 2022 full-scale invasion, we prepared to support a long Ukrainian guerilla war against Russian occupation and were cautious about giving the Ukrainian government weapons that we assumed would only fall into Russian hands. As the Kremlin’s tanks crossed the border, we offered President Volodymyr Zelensky an escape route, so he could lead Ukraine’s government in exile.Even after the Ukrainian people showed that they had the will and the strength not to be conquered, we have been collectively hesitant about giving them the tools that they need to win.

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globalization. Faced with so much chaos and uncertainty, can we say anything with confidence about where the US and global economies are heading?One thing we can say is that the US economy is not doing as well as Trump, ever the con man, would have us believe.