Rate Cut Financial News

Canadian consumers haven’t tightened their belts this much in nearly a year, and there are no signs of spending growth since the start of 2024.

CPI) inflation does not have to touch the Reserve Bank of India's 4% target, but sustainably move towards that mark for interest rates to be lowered, Ashima Goyal, external member of the central bank's monetary policy committee (MPC), told ET. «Headline inflation does not have to reach target but has to durably approach it for the MPC to cut rates,» Goyal said in an interview after the release of the MPC's April 3-5 minutes. «If expected headline inflation stays persistently below 4.5%, our current real repo rate would be too high.» She said she would look for more confirmation of India's resilience to supply shocks and the anchoring of inflation expectations, while citing global risks, domestic political flux and the progress of the monsoon as uncertainties that shaped her view of a status quo on rates in April. Over the past year, the RBI has, on several occasions, said that its aim is to drive CPI inflation back to the 4% target, and that it is not enough for the price gauge to be within the 2-6 tolerance band of the MPC. CPI inflation was at 4.85% in March.

The CBOE Volatility index, an options-based measure of investor expectations for near-term stock market gyrations, hit 21.33 points, crossing the psychological mark of 20 points for the first time since Oct. 30, 2023.

Market Rebellion co-founder Pete Najarian discusses delayed rate cuts by the Fed, inflation and U.S. markets.

UK's March inflation print underscored market uncertainty about when BoE policymakers led by Governor Andrew Bailey will be able to ease off on the highest interest rates in 16 years. However, UK inflation is still higher than the BoE's two per cent but the direction of the downtrend is clear, said analysts. While UK has lifted rate cut hopes.

Federal Reserve to cut rates is likely to weigh on RBI’s decision on starting its policy rate easing cycle. After Morgan Stanley and Kotak Bank, even IDFC Bank expects RBI to ease its rate easing call. Strong economic growth and escalated tensions in West Asia could add to inflation risks and delay rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India could also weigh on the central bank's decision. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday did not provide any guidance on when interest rates may be cut, saying instead that monetary policy needs to be restrictive for longer Economists are now factoring in a possible delay in policy rate cuts by the RBI, which has kept it unchanged since February 2023 at 6.5%. They were expecting the central bank to start lowering rates from the second half of FY' 2024-25

Also Read: Stock market crash today: Why is Indian stock market falling for last three days? Explained with 5 reasons According to Trading Economics data, eight out of thirteen categories recorded increases, indicating that consumers continued to spend at a faster pace than anticipated despite persistent inflationary pressures. Given the strong retail data and elevated inflation print for March, analysts anticipate that the Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts until July or September instead of June. In addition, the mixed results from IT major Tata Consultancy Services have also dented investors' sentiment towards IT stocks.

Federal Reserve is unlikely to be in a rush to cut interest rates this year. Rising geopolitical tensions kept risk sentiment in check, lifting prices of gold and oil, while investor focus in Asia turns to China with GDP data due at 0200 GMT.

The dollar index was on track to post its largest weekly percentage gain since September 2022. It was last up 0.7% at 106.02.

Mumbai: What’s holding back India’s central bank from cutting policy rates? Apart from the pace of price rise that is yet to align with Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) target of 4%, there is another factor at play — transmission of past repo rate actions into lending rates. The monetary policy committee (MPC) of RBI raised the repo rate by 250 basis points (bps) between May 2022 and February 2023.

Steve Englander, Forex Strategy, Standard Chartered Bank, says: “We do not think they are going to be cut in May. We used to think they would be cut in June. I would say it is still possible, but it has gone below 50% in our calculation. So, we see July as the first possible easing.” Just wondering how to dissect the PPI as well as CPI data because the Fed pivot is quickly disappearing it seems and that I guess is going to be higher for longer? Steve Englander: We think so. We changed our Fed forecast from cutting four times this year beginning in June to cutting twice, probably with the first cut in July. The issue is that inflation is staying up. We initially thought it was an aberration. It still might be an aberration, but we are less sure. The last three months of inflation are higher than the corresponding three months the year before and it is the first pickup in a while.

₹72,678 per 10 gm while MCX silver rate today touched a new high of ₹84,102 per kg within a few minutes of the commodity market's opening bell. Speaking on the reason for the rise in gold and silver rates today, Anuj Gupta, Head of Commodity & Currency at HDFC Securities said, “Gold and silver prices are ascending today as the market is expecting US Fed rate cut after the strong US CPI data released on Wednesday.

PVR INOX unveiled a 14-screen megaplex in Bengaluru, featuring three high-end formats: MX4D, ScreenX, and Insignia. The newly opened cinema at Phoenix Mall of Asia in Bengaluru can accommodate up to 1,997 viewers and is equipped with 4K laser projection, Dolby Atmos advanced surround sound, and a Volfoni 3D screen.The multiplex chain has introduced South India's first MX4D, an immersive 4D movie experience, and ScreenX, a 270-degree cinema viewing experience.

Fed won't make its move until after Americans go to the polls. Rate futures markets now show investors see a first rate cut as most likely occurring at the Fed's Sept. 17-18 meeting after data showed inflation through the entire first quarter of 2024 was stiffer than expected and had demonstrably slowed progress on bringing it back to the Fed's 2% target.

Also Read: US Fed rate cut unlikely in June as US inflation hots up. What this means for Indian investors and what should they do? Coming to current levels, NSE International Exchange (NSEIX) data suggests that Gift Nifty is trading around 22,582 (up 0.12 per cent) as against the Nifty 50 futures closing of 22,804 on April 10. Gift Nifty is more than 200 points lower which indicates a gap-down opening for Nifty 50 on Friday, April 12.

US inflation beats Wall Street estimates, rises 0.4% in March; Fed's June rate cut hopes fade away The US CPI data for March marked the biggest gain in six months (since September 2023). Also Read: Fed rate cuts are now a matter of if, not just when The hotter-than-expected US inflation print for March has dealt a serious blow to hopes of Fed rate cuts in June. Experts underscore that US Fed swap markets are discounting the possibility of only two rate cuts this year, compared to the six rate cuts expected at the beginning of the year and three rate cut expectations in March.

All three major U.S. stock indexes veered sharply lower at the opening bell after the Labor Department's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report landed north of consensus, a reminder that inflation's road back down to the Fed's 2% target will remain a long and meandering one.

Gold prices were little changed on Thursday, as the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields firmed after hotter-than-expected inflation data tempered hopes for an early interest rate cut.

Despite hotter-than-expected inflation data, the Bitcoin price defied expectations and surged in value on Wednesday, even as the US Federal Reserve’s rate cut story was thrown into doubt.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed the US Consumer Price Index rose to an annual rate of 3.5% in March, an increase from February's figure of 3.2%. Similarly to February, shelter and gasoline were the biggest contributors, responsible for over half of the monthly increase in the index for all items.  Jerome Powell: Rate cuts likely as US inflation is on track to meet target Richard Carter, head of fixed interest research at Quilter Cheviot, said the figures have «dashed any remaining hopes» for a May rate cut, as CPI is «firmly» above the Fed's 2% target and has been heading i...

Oil prices fell nearly 2% as Middle East tensions eased after Israel withdrew more soldiers from southern Gaza, while gold prices slumped 1% after scaling record high on Friday as U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated.