Expect first Fed rate cut in July: Steve Englander, StanChart

economictimes.indiatimes.com:

Steve Englander, Forex Strategy, Standard Chartered Bank, says: “We do not think they are going to be cut in May. We used to think they would be cut in June. I would say it is still possible, but it has gone below 50% in our calculation. So, we see July as the first possible easing.”

Just wondering how to dissect the PPI as well as CPI data because the Fed pivot is quickly disappearing it seems and that I guess is going to be higher for longer?
Steve Englander: We think so. We changed our Fed forecast from cutting four times this year beginning in June to cutting twice, probably with the first cut in July. The issue is that inflation is staying up. We initially thought it was an aberration. It still might be an aberration, but we are less sure. The last three months of inflation are higher than the corresponding three months the year before and it is the first pickup in a while.

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I would say the PPI gave some relief today, not enormous, but it suggests that the two decimal places there is a good chance core PCE will be 0.30 or less, slightly less, not a lot less. So, that is a bit of a relief. I think it means that some of the risk that is beginning to percolate into the market that it is not only that the Fed may not cut as much as we expected, but they might not cut at