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Middle East could upend countries’ inflation and growth calculations, leading to a higher than expected inflation for India as well, according to Fitch Ratings. “Higher oil prices would lead to higher-than-expected inflation rates in 2024, followed by corrections in 2025.

Fitch Ratings predicts that higher-than-expected oil prices, stemming from potential disruptions in the Middle East's oil supply due to conflicts, could significantly impact global economic growth and lead to a surge in inflation. According to Fitch's Global Economic Outlook (GEO), a scenario with average oil prices of USD 75 per barrel in 2024 and USD 70 per barrel in 2025 could be upended if oil prices spike to USD 120 per barrel in 2024 and USD 100 per barrel in 2025 due to supply restrictions. The simulations, conducted using the Oxford Economics Global Economic Model, reveal a potential 0.4 percentage point (pp) reduction in world Gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2024, with a lingering 0.1 pp lower growth in 2025. Despite the modest rebound anticipated in 2025, Fitch suggests a persistent moderate impact beyond the initial shock. The impact of higher oil prices would be felt across the board, with the absence of significant growth rebound in 2025 indicating a potentially longer-lasting effect on GDP levels in most countries. Notably, the negative growth impact in 2024 ranges from 0.1 pp in Indonesia to a substantial 0.9 pp in Korea, with the US, the Eurozone and Japan experiencing impacts of 0.5 pp. Emerging market countries like South Africa and Turkey would face significant impacts of 0.7 pp, while Russia and Brazil, owing to their reliance on oil production, would experience varied effects. The aggregate impact on the Fitch 20 suggests a global GDP growth shortfall of 0.4 pp in 2024 and 0.1 pp in 2025. Moreover, higher oil prices would lead to elevated inflation rates in 2024, with India, Turkey, and Poland experiencing the highest percentage point rises. Developed economies would witness more

The Bank of Canada’s No. 2 official urged preparation for interest rates staying elevated for longer.

Mint takes a look at the CAFRAL report and what it says about consumption. The report said household consumption expenditure increased from ₹49 trillion in 2012 to about ₹143 trillion in 2022, or about 6% year-on-year (yoy) since FY14 except for the pandemic period of FY19 to FY 2021. Despite a changing growth rate over the years, the share of consumption expenditure in GDP rose from 56.5% in FY12 to 60.9% in FY22.

India Economics Comment: The fog of food prices, also highlighted the likelihood of muted rural demand putting fiscal pressure on the government ahead of elections. Retail inflation in India, which had climbed to a 15-month peak in July, moderated to 5.02% in September, aided by softening food prices. The surge in July food inflation to 11.5%, a three-year record, has since tempered to 6.56% in September.

Bank of Queensland has lost its fifth executive since Patrick Allaway stepped in to stabilise the company’s senior management a year ago.

gold allocation has benefited investors. With returns on gold mutual funds as of October-end close to 20% y-o-y, many of us might have missed the gold rally. But don’t let that dampen the Diwali spirit. Prospects for gold are looking good in the long term, giving you more reason than just the festivities to invest in the precious metal. International gold prices bottomed out in October last year and started moving up slowly over the next six months as the Federal Reserve became less aggressive with its rate hikes. Prices moved up sharply in March 2023 as a regional banking crisis erupted in the US and drove risk assets down. Risk aversion and expectations of Fed cutting rates in response to the crisis were the drivers. But the crisis did not spread to other parts of the economy and gold cooled off in the subsequent months. Meanwhile, inflation remained more than double the Fed's 2% target and US economic indicators were showing resilience, meaning there was more requirement and more room to hike rates. Fed began indicating a hawkish stance again. US yields and US dollar moved up and gold moved lower till September.

Also Read: Can air pollution lead to cancer? Experts explore the link Paul Wapham, CEO of Hockey Wales, was on his regular morning run when he was struck by a sudden, “massive chest pain". The pain was so unbearable, that he was not even able to walk or sit at a comfortable place. Somehow, he managed to use his Apple device to call his wife, Laura.

Arindam Bagchi said on Thursday. Indian authorities are also in touch with the family members of the eight men, minister S Jaishankar met them , the spokesperson said adding that India will continue providing legal assistance to them.

Indian Navy personnel by a Qatari court last month, said the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) said on Thursday. MEA spokesperson Arindam Bagchi said the Indian embassy in Doha received another consular access to the detained Indians on Tuesday and that New Delhi will continue to extend all legal and consular support to them. The eight former Indian Navy personnel were on October 26 given death sentence by Qatar's Court of First Instance.

Moody’s Investor Service, reaffirming its 6.7% growth forecast for the Indian economy for 2023. “With exports remaining weak amid an unfavourable global economic backdrop, strong domestic demand will likely sustain growth in the near-term,” the research firm said Thursday, predicting the Indian economy to grow 6.1% in 2024 and 6.3% in the subsequent year. India’s economy grew 7.8% in the April-June quarter; Moody’s expects growth momentum to have continued in subsequent quarters. “High-frequency indicators show that the economy's strong Q2 momentum carried into Q3.

The 13 largest U.S. tire manufacturers are facing a lawsuit from a pair of California commercial fishing organizations that could force the companies to stop using a chemical found in almost every tire because it kills migrating salmon

Iran and its proxies from turning the Israel-Hamas fighting into a regional war, but the repeated attacks and strikes in response risk a conflict between Washington and Tehran. "US military forces conducted a self-defense strike on a facility in eastern Syria used by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and affiliated groups.

It’s important, I think, that I occasionally remind readers of a fact that is supported by overwhelming quantitative evidence, and yet virtually ignored by a wide majority of economists (and central bankers): inflation is a consequence of the stock of money growing faster than real economic growth. Period.

Rashmika Mandanna went viral on social media and netizens reacted with a mixture of shock, surprise and horror when they realized that it wasn't the popular actress but a British Indian influencer named Zara Patel. Also Read| 'Extremely scary': Rashmika Mandanna flags 'identity theft' issue as deepfake video goes viral The actress quickly went on social media to share her despair and shock over the viral video. In her comments on X, Mandanna wrote, "I feel really hurt to share this and have to talk about the deepfake video of me being spread online." "Something like this is honestly, extremely scary not only for me, but also for each one of us who today is vulnerable to so much harm because of how technology is being misused." the actress added.

Lisa Cook said on Wednesday. «We've experienced these geopolitical tensions that you're talking about, and certainly any shock could make the situation worse that we're already (in)… and could be destabilizing to commodity markets, could be destabilizing to the system of credit,» Cook said during a panel discussion at a conference hosted by the Central Bank of Ireland in Dublin. «We are watching and waiting. We're being vigilant and that's what we do.

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) deputy governor Michael Patra said. “Climate change can affect price stability through supply shocks such as food and energy shortages and through a decline in productive capacity. Demand shocks can arise due to the loss of wealth of firms and households on account of frequent natural disasters.

alleged cash-for-query case, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) MP Nishikant Dubey said on November 8. “Lokpal has today, on the basis of my complaint, ordered a CBI inquiry against accused Mahua Moitra for allegedly indulging in corruption that compromised national security," Dubey said on social media platform X. An official statement from the anti-graft panel was awaited by the time the preliminary reports emerged.

Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa has resigned while his government is involved in a widespread corruption probe

scam messages and the growing sophistication of scams powered by artificial intelligence (AI) on consumers worldwide. Over 7,000 adults from seven countries, including India, took part in the study. According to the study, Indians receive an average of 12 fake messages or scams per day, and they spend approximately 1.8 hours per week identifying these fraudulent messages.

The email from PwC Australia’s leadership team inviting staff to a “firmwide webcast” arrived just before 9am. By the time it was finished a few hours later, so were more than 300 jobs at the once market-leading big four firm, along with the flagship tech hub it opened barely two years ago.