Bitcoin Price May Be Nearing Bottom If This Signal is Correct

cryptonews.com:

Bitcoin (BTC) has been locked in a 10-month downtrend since reaching its all-time high of around $69,000 in November 2021. However, historical data suggests that the flagship cryptocurrency has entered the late stage of the bear market and may be near a price bottom. 

The data was pointed out in the latest edition of the Week Onchain report by blockchain analytics firm Glassnode. Weighing the spot price of BTC against the cost basis of distinct cohorts of market participants using the market-value-to-realized-value (MVRV), the report noted that a price bottom may soon be in for Bitcoin. 

Three cohorts of market participants including the overall market, long-term holders (LTH), and short-term holders (STH) were identified by the analysis. Comparing the spot market price to their various on-chain cost basis revealed that their MVRVs have spent around 56 days below a ratio of less than one - a region in which all cohorts are holding an unrealized loss. 

While conceding that 56 days is still less than the average bottom forming duration of approximately 190 days of previous bear markets, the ratio still indicates a prolonged period of financial strain for STHs. As observed in other bear markets, such periods are usually followed by capitulation, where coins purchased near the cycle top are sold at much lower prices. 

"Throughout the bear, persistent price depreciation leads the STH Realized Price to fall below the LTH Realized… This is synonymous with a capitulation, where coins purchased near the cycle top are sold and change hands at much lower prices," the report said.

This capitulation crossover stage has not been reached despite Bitcoin having been in a 10-month drawdown. But going by the market's trajectory, it should be