Crystal ball review: AI has evolved only partly as predicted a quarter ago

livemint.com:

Even as humanity frets about all the jobs AI will impact, one profession clearly under threat is that of predicting the future. What job does a futurist have if everything changes every now and then as an AI company unveils a product that makes our jaws drop. Every January, I would predict the top 10 things that would happen in tech that year; and then go back with some trepidation at year-end to score how I fared in my fortune-telling abilities.

I did the same this January and whipped out my 10 AI predictions for 2024. However, given the onslaught of innovation, I have resolved to do a quarterly scorecard. With the year’s first frenzied quarter having drawn to a close, here it is: Tech wars would rage: The AI race would accelerate, I said, with the Microsoft-OpenAI alliance in fierce contest with a resurgent Google.

OpenAI would launch GPT5, which will outpace Gemini Ultra. Verdict: It’s still to play out, but the signs look promising. Sam Altman has spoken of GPT5 in the “middle of the year." Gemini Ultra seems to have had a major hiccup and has been temporarily withdrawn.

So, this one seems right on the money, 10/10. AI moves to the edge: Gemini Nano on the Pixel and an AppleGPT on iPhones could be the sleeper hits, dislodging OpenAI from the lead. Mobile access and integration would win over the PC.

Verdict: Samsung AI Phone launched in February. Microsoft Surface AI version was announced, followed by Intel AI PC. Qualcomm predicts $99 AI phones by the end of 2024.

No AppleGPT. But AI is hurtling towards the edge. So it’s 7/10.

Race to regulation: This race is as big as the race to develop AI. Following the EU AI Act, many other countries will release AI regulations. There will be an effort for global regulation