High valuations flash warning signs amid uncertain market outlook: Vijayaraghavan Swaminathan
consumption growth, which is another core pillar in the last three-four quarters, I think, we do not see any legs for us to surprise positively as we move ahead, especially when it comes to urban consumption demand drivers are concerned," says Vijayaraghavan Swaminathan, Avendus Spark Institutional Equities.
I was quite taken by your note, which actually starts off with the quote saying, I cannot change the direction of the wind, but I can adjust my sails to always reach my destination. We all know the kind of times that we are sitting in, both in terms of the global uncertainties with the changing interest rate regime that you are having, both in the Far East as well as the Far West and, of course, political uncertainties and geopolitical tensions other than that. But when we talk about India, it is really all about valuations, that is the sort of screaming amber light if I can say so. What is it you are making of the market construct right now, especially here in India?
Vijayaraghavan Swaminathan: So just to give you the context, from a demand perspective, last three-four quarters, we have been excessively cautious, especially on the consumption factors. This is largely coming from the fact that household balance sheets today, we do not draw enough confidence because of excess leverage, which households are sitting on.
On top of it, if you look at the last three-four quarters, there is a weak job hiring when it comes to IT sector and weak salary growth. And adding to that, if you look at last three-four
