Nifty headed for ruthless winter if ‘tale of 2 halves’ theory doesn't come true
Most analysts believe that the current slowdown in earnings, which was also reflected in Q2 GDP growth hitting a seven-quarter-low of 5.4%, is likely to be limited only to the first two quarters.
«There are a couple of things which give us confidence going into the second half of the year. Softer crude prices will help corporate margins in the second half. And as the government spends come back in the second half, we will see corporate revenues and profits reviving. So, these two factors give us more confidence moving into the second half,» said Rohit Seksaria of Sundaram Mutual Fund.
As a result, while most economists downgraded India's FY25 GDP outlook, Sensex ended 445 points higher. Goldman Sachs and Emkay Global have both reduced India's FY25 GDP estimate from 6.5% to 6% while HDFC Bank and Barclays have lowered it to 6.5% from 6.8% earlier.
Morgan Stanley economists said growth is likely to have bottomed out and looks headed for rebound in H2. The trend in high frequency indicators in October and November reflects a pickup in activity momentum.
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