Nomura expects Fed to pause rate-cut cycle in December
U.S. Federal Reserve is no longer expected to cut interest rates at its December policy meeting, Nomura has said, making it the first global brokerage to signal a pause in the central bank's rate-cutting cycle in the wake of Donald Trump's election win.
Nomura now expects the Fed to deliver only two 25-basis-point (bp) rate reductions at its March and June meetings in 2025, leaving the brokerage's Fed funds rate projection unchanged at 4.125% through next year.
The Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate is currently in the 4.50%-4.75% range. It has cut rates by 75 bps in 2024.
Other global brokerages, including Goldman Sachs and J.P.Morgan, anticipate a 25-bp cut from the central bank next month.
Nomura expects the Fed to halt its tightening cycle next month after recent hawkish remarks from policymakers amid ongoing economic growth and the likelihood of further elevated inflation, adding to the central bank's indication that it is not in a hurry to lower rates.
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