September has a track record of being a bit of a downer in the stock market historically, and the numbers back it up. When we look at the average daily returns of the S&P 500, it's clear that the latter half of September tends to bring some seasonal weakness.
And as we've seen in the past 10 trading sessions, those declines have played out exactly as expected. Seasonal Signals Favor Q4 Surge:
Source: YCharts
Sure, September might have thrown us some curveballs historically, but here's the good news: we're about to leave that disappointment behind and step into the three best-performing months of the year.
Let's take a quick look at what the last four years have brought us after September:
Now, let's talk about what's coming up in the next quarter (Q4):
So, the key takeaway here is to stay aware of the market's seasonality. It can help us avoid making hasty decisions, especially when we consider the expected historical returns for the next quarter.
Right now, two charts are taking center stage: First, the US 10-year yield, which has reached its highest levels in 15 years.
And oil prices, which are soaring to their highest points in 2023.
The big question that looms is whether these bullish trends will take a U-turn in the fourth quarter. Moreover, will the mega-caps continue to deliver outstanding performances?
Source: Visual Capitalist
The 50 largest-value companies collectively hold a market capitalization exceeding $26.5 trillion. In terms of sectors, Information Technology (IT) boasts the highest representation among the top 50, with a combined market capitalization of $9.3 trillion.
It's worth noting that only a select few companies globally, including Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Microsoft Corporation
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