Ed Yardeni News

Jerome Powell was poised to kick off the great monetary pivot in earnest thanks to the steady demise of inflation, while Corporate America’s famous profit machine vindicated the euphoria on Wall Street and beyond. Now after a week of geopolitical tensions and bond volatility, life is getting harder for money managers who are sitting on some of their highest exposures to stocks and credit combined in a decade.

Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research, says the US stock market has weakened since the middle of February as the Magnificent Seven have declined by about 15% since the beginning of the year. But other stock markets have actually done well. Germany, China. India seems to be stabilising. Money already has been going global. It has left the United States and that may continue to be the case. It is as though the stock markets are saying that the tariff situation is going to be worse for the US than for the rest of the world. But the markets are also saying that the US has been expensive What is your expectation from the Fed this time, a status quo? Ed Yardeni: Status quo. Nothing different from everybody else. The Fed has communicated that they are in no hurry to ease. I view that as a fundamentally dovish stance because the alternative would have been to say there is no hurry to do anything. In which case, the message would be rates could be here for a long time, not going up, not going down. But they have been saying over and over again that they are in no hurry to ease, so they are clearly thinking about lowering interest rates and depending on how this tariff turmoil turns out there may be a weak enough economy out there that they will ease. The problem is they may also get some inflation out of tariffs. So, they could really be boxed in and really be in no hurry to do anything for a while.

US equity correction may be over, with credit markets indicating a lower risk of recession, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. Credit markets, which were proven right on multiple occasions over the past two years, “are once again more dismissive of US recession risks than equity or rate markets,” strategists including Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou and Mika Inkinen wrote in a note dated Wednesday.

Is the Trump trade rally really a thing?

interest rates. Their hope was rekindled after Federal Reserve Chairman Jeremy Powell indicated a reduction in the bank rates in September. Many people believe it may happen earlier and the Fed may convene an emergency meeting to take a decision aimed at saving the US economy from slipping into a recession. However, Ed Yardeni, the president of Yardeni Research and a longtime Wall Street veteran believes there may be only one cut in this financial year and it may be as little as 25 basis points.

Just twenty-four days into 2024, and the S&P 500 has already blown past the Wall Street consensus over where the index will finish the year.

Quarterly earnings reports have begun to pour in on a positive note, especially for the big banks. In fact, based on the performance of the companies that have already reported so far, the current trend indicates that we have already bottomed out in the previous quarter.

The slide in Treasuries has been excessive given recent economic data and Federal Reserve policy, suggesting it’s instead being driven by fears over the swelling US deficit, some of Wall Street’s biggest names say. 

The term “Bond Vigilantes” is a nostalgic twist on an old-west theme. In the nineteenth century, the American West formed self-appointed groups, or committees, to seize the duties of law enforcement and judicial authority in situations when citizens found law enforcement lacking or inadequate.

A famous market adage says bond vigilantes are just like equity perma-bears, except for the fact that they understand math. That’s probably because, unlike perma-bears, vigilantes are famous for knowing when the risk-premia is too unfavorable for them — and just when it isn't.

There is a rhythm to the markets, and market cycle lows support bull market recoveries. Recently, Ed Yardeni made a bold prediction that the S&P 500 index could hit a high of 5400 in 2024. 

U.S. equities futures were slightly higher Tuesday night after the market staged a big midday reversal, with falling bond yields giving a boost to growth stocks, and ahead of a batch of economic data.

U.S. stock futures rose on Monday night after the S&P 500 dropped back into bear market territory ahead of the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting this week.

U.S. stock futures fell Sunday night as Wall Street tries to recover from one of its worst weeks of 2022.

Stock futures were little changed Monday evening after a sleepy day of trading as investors await key inflation data due out later in the week.

U.S. stock futures inched higher in overnight trading as investors braced for a key inflation report Tuesday.

Stock futures inched higher in overnight trading after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank is open to higher rate hikes to combat rising inflation.

Stock futures were lower Tuesday evening as investors continued to assess a surge in commodity prices and high inflation while the war in Ukraine continues.

Long-time market bull Ed Yardeni is delivering a dose of optimism into year-end.