Michael Feroli News

U.S. economy is heading into troubled waters. That’s the latest warning from J.P. Morgan, which on Friday forecasted a full-year contraction in gross domestic product for 2025 — the first major Wall Street institution to do so. “We now expect real GDP to contract under the weight of the tariffs, and for the full year (4Q/4Q) we now look for real GDP growth of -0.3 per cent, down from 1.3 per cent previously,” said Michael Feroli, the firm’s chief U.S. economist, in a note to clients, as reported by Bloomberg. Feroli anticipates a two-quarter recession in the second half of 2025, with GDP shrinking 1% in Q3 and 0.5% in Q4. The cause? A dramatic escalation in U.S. trade policy under President Trump.

The Federal Reserve should cut interest rates by 50 basis points at its September meeting, according to JPMorgan's Michael Feroli.

Federal Reserve easing cycle based on the latest evidence that the labour market is cooling. Economists at Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase revamped their forecasts for US monetary policy Friday after data showed the US unemployment rate rose again in July, calling for earlier, bigger or more interest-rate cuts. Economists at Citigroup — already among the most aggressive in calling for the Fed to cut interest rates this year — said they expect half-point rate cuts in September and November and a quarter-point cut in December, having previously predicted quarter-point cuts at all three meetings. The Fed will then reduce rates by a quarter point at each meeting until mid-2025, bringing the policy band to 3%-3.25%, Veronica Clark and Andrew Hollenhorst predicted.

By Ann Saphir

Federal Reserve kicks off a two-day policy meeting on Tuesday with officials widely expected to keep interest rates on hold for now, but also flagging in new economic projections whether they feel rates still need to rise further before the end of the year. A new policy statement and interest rate decision will be released at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT) on Wednesday, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell scheduled to hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. to elaborate. Investors in contracts tied to the federal funds rate consider it a near certainty the U.S. central bank will leave the benchmark federal funds rate at the current range of between 5.25% and 5.5%, a step consistent with the Fed's shift to a slower and more considered pace of rate increases. From March 2022 through May 2023 the Fed raised rates at 10 successive meetings — by anywhere from a quarter to three quarters of a point — as it fought the worst rise of inflation since the early 1980s. In June the Fed paused, but the quarterly economic projections accompanying that decision showed 12 of 18 policymakers still anticipated two more quarter-point rate increases by the end of the year.

By Howard Schneider

raising interest rates to slow the economy, policymakers hoped for an even rosier outcome. They wanted to achieve a “soft landing", which involves both bringing down inflation, and doing so without mass job losses. It is a lot to ask of a tool as blunt as monetary policy.

By Wayne Cole

A top economist at J.P. Morgan says keeping the Federal Reserve’s books in the black could motivate the central bank to start an earlier and faster runoff of its balance sheet.