Fed to hold rates steady, but signal policy path in meeting this week
By Howard Schneider
WASHINGTON (Reuters) — The U.S. Federal Reserve kicks off a two-day policy meeting on Tuesday with officials widely expected to keep interest rates on hold for now, but also flagging in new economic projections whether they feel rates still need to rise further before the end of the year.
A new policy statement and interest rate decision will be released at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT) on Wednesday, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell scheduled to hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. to elaborate.
Investors in contracts tied to the federal funds rate consider it a near certainty the U.S. central bank will leave the benchmark federal funds rate at the current range of between 5.25% and 5.5%, a step consistent with the Fed's shift to a slower and more considered pace of rate increases.
From March 2022 through May 2023 the Fed raised rates at 10 successive meetings — by anywhere from a quarter to three quarters of a point — as it fought the worst rise of inflation since the early 1980s.
In June the Fed paused, but the quarterly economic projections accompanying that decision showed 12 of 18 policymakers still anticipated two more quarter-point rate increases by the end of the year.
One of those came at the July meeting. While the Fed's slower, «data dependent» pacing may lead officials to skip over September, analysts say there has been little in recent economic news that would prompt policymakers to take that last rate increase off the table.
The logic «is partly inertia, as Committee participants might not want to mess with what's working,» said JP Morgan economist Michael Feroli.
Additionally, data since the Fed's last meeting, while generally supporting the view of slowing inflation alongside continued economic
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