Why aren’t more people being sacked?

livemint.com:

raising interest rates to slow the economy, policymakers hoped for an even rosier outcome. They wanted to achieve a “soft landing", which involves both bringing down inflation, and doing so without mass job losses. It is a lot to ask of a tool as blunt as monetary policy.

Are they succeeding? The question is almost certainly one that officials at the Federal Reserve will be asking when they meet on September 19th and 20th. And so far the evidence suggests that—against widespread expectations—labour markets from San Francisco to Sydney are co-operating. Central bankers started to raise rates at a time when demand for labour had almost never been so strong (see chart 1).

Last year the unemployment rate across the OECD club of mostly rich countries, measuring the share of people in the labour force who would like a job, was a shade under 5%, close to an all-time low. Excess demand for labour showed up in a surge in unfilled vacancies, which reached an all-time high. Workers bargained for higher wages, knowing that they had plenty of options.

The scale of the task central bankers set themselves was illustrated by history. Research by Alex Domash and Larry Summers, both of Harvard University, found that there had never been an instance in which the American vacancy rate had fallen substantially without unemployment rising significantly. Last year Michael Feroli of JPMorgan Chase, a bank, studied the record and noted that “whenever the vacancy rate goes down a little it goes down a lot, and the economy lands in recession." To assess progress in rich-world labour markets, we have assembled data from the OECD and Indeed, a listings website, covering 16 countries.