CAD Financial News

New Delhi: India's current account deficit (CAD) widened in the April-June quarter to $9.2 billion or 1.1% of GDP from $1.3 billion in the preceding three months. The September quarter is expected to see a substantial widening of the deficit as the trade balance has been worsening sequentially, oil and higher core imports are rising, and services exports are slowing further. Mint explains the relevance of the data in the context of the Indian economy The current account measures the flow of trade, including goods and services and investments in and out of a country.

Also Read: From high inflation to import bill - the domino effect of rising crude oil prices on Indian economy With major oil producers Saudi Arabia and Russia announcing oil supply cuts of a combined 1.3 million barrels per day (mbpd) till the end of the year, the global economy already faces an oil market deficit. Now, with oil prices hovering above the $90 per barrel-mark, the escalation of the conflict towards other Middle Eastern oil producers is concerning and requires careful monitoring, especially given the global economy's 'higher for longer' interest rate scenario. The oil supply is unlikely to be threatened unless the issue expands to other nations in the region and becomes a proxy conflict between the US and Iran.

Also Read: Global oil market sensitive to Israel-Hamas war; Russia ready to boost supplies to Saudi Arabia: Novak Brent futures settled up $4.89, or 5.7 per cent, at $90.89 per barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained $4.78, or 5.8 per cent, to $87.69 a barrel. Both benchmarks posted their highest daily percentage gains since April.

NEW DELHI : India’s trade deficit narrowed in September as imports plunged and exports continued to slide amid slowing demand in the West and China. Goods exports slipped marginally by 2.59% to $34.47 billion compared to $35.39 billion in September 2022, while imports fell a steeper 15% to $53.84 billion against $63.37 billion a year earlier. Consequently, the trade deficit fell to $19.37 billion, down over 30% from $27.98 billion a year ago, commerce ministry data showed.

ASK Wealth Advisors Private Limited. "The inclusion into bond indices is good to have, feeds incrementally into the “Bharat shining" narrative. It’s also a good sandbox regulatory experiment for RBI, to manage monetary policy while losing some policy-making flexibility.

Crude oil prices have shot up since June... Brent crude has jumped to a 10-month high and breached $93/barrel in mid-September. It has averaged $83.5 in the past year.

Also Read: ‘Crude’ impact on economy: $10 rise in Brent widens India's CAD by 0.5%, say analysts as oil sizzles to 10-month high Oil prices are expected to trade higher and can touch above $95, but market analysts reckon that prices sustaining above $100 is questionable. ‘’Markets fear that this trend could spur more cooling in the US economy, potentially denting crude demand,'' said domestic brokerage firm Motilal Oswal. US fuel demand is also expected to cool in the coming months, with the end of the travel-heavy summer season.

emerging market debt index which may cause billions of dollars of inflows into India. As per reports, quoting JPMorgan, India's local bonds will be included in the Government Bond Index-emerging markets (GBI-EM) index and the index suite, benchmarked by about $236 billion in global funds. The inclusion of Indian bonds will start on June 28, 2024, and extend over 10 months with one per cent increments on its index weighting, as India is expected to reach the maximum weighting of 10 per cent, according to JPMorgan.

social spending with schemes to boost annual transfers to farmers, expanding health insurance, and interest subsidy on home loans, foreign brokerage Jefferies said in a report. State freebies have already started in a big way. The fiscal performance is weak year-to-date (YTD) with tax collections 3 per cent YoY (Apr-Jul), vs budgeted 10 per cent for FY24.

Also Read: Week Ahead: US Fed Policy, crude oil prices, FII mood among key market triggers this week as Nifty stares at record-high "This crude price rally doesn't want to stop," said OANDA analyst Edward Moya. “The oil market will likely be tight throughout the winter," reported news agency Reuters. The US continued to witness a fall in its shale oil output.

fastest-growing economy in the world? Not India. It is Guyana. The country's GDP is expected to grow 38% in 2023, after registering growth of 62% in 2022 and averaging over 30% in the two years before that.

India is the world’s 3rd largest oil importer and the rise above $95 could bring back inflation fears and put pressure on India's fiscal math. India’s current account deficit can widen, thus weakening its currency, says Navneet Damani, Head of Commodity & Currency Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.Considering the current trends in crude oil prices, where do you see Brent/WTI price targets in the near term and for the year 2023? Oil prices have been on a roll trading at 10 months highs recently, as Chinese central banks have been cutting cash reserve requirements to boost its economic recovery, expectations of peaking interest rate cycles by major central banks along with output cuts driven by Saudi Arabia and Russia amid record global consumption. Prices got a further boost after the IEA warned that continued supply cuts by the two OPEC+ leaders are likely to create a “significant supply shortfall” and threaten further price volatility.

macroeconomic indicators. According to latest estimates by market analysts, India's current account deficit (CAD) -which measures the difference between exports and imports of goods and services – is also impacted by high crude prices.

OPEC reduces 2023 oil demand by 1 lakh bpd to 29 mbpd, Saudi output cut leads to 3 mbpd shortfall Experts see a possibility of crude oil prices rising above the $100 per barrel level because of supply cuts and anticipation of economic recovery in China. "Yes, it is quite possible for the global oil price to breach the $100 mark a barrel. Significant efforts of Saudi Arabia and Russia to curtail oil supply and also extend the schedule of oil supply cuts could lead oil to breach this psychological mark," said G.

By Abhinav Mital

Indian equity market has witnessed several upswings in recent years, but the current rally is particularly noteworthy for its strength and breadth. Though inflation concerns and risk aversion due to Fitch’s downgrade of US credit rating may have led to some sobering of sentiments in the India Equity, the long-term growth prospects look intact. If we look at the broader macro backdrop in the past cycle, there are notable differences between the current rally vs the pre-covid times — that is, 2013-2018 (especially in mid/small category). The current rally is positively different from the previous rally in the 2013-18 period in several ways.

On August 14, 2023, Hut 8 Mining Corp, one of North America's major pioneers in the mining of digital assets, released its financial results for the second quarter of 2023. The report offers a thorough look at the business' performance, including both successes and problems encountered throughout the quarter.

Morgan Stanley upgrading the rating on Indian equities to “overweight” and moving it to the 1st position in the basket of Asian emerging markets ex-Japan. The ratings upgrade reflects India’s growing absolute and relative attractiveness as an equity market, according to Ridham Desai, managing director at the global investment firm.

Indian expats won big this week in the UAE, with the first one getting Dh20 million in prize money while the other won Dh1 million at the latest Mahzooz Draw in Dubai, reported Gulf News. Feeling absolutely thrilled and happy after winning the big prizes, both winners have also urged others to try their luck at the draw. The first winner is Sachin, who originally comes from the city of Mumbai and is currently working as a CAD technician for a private company.

Fixed income instruments are a series of cash flows. They carry a fixed rate of return and maturity period. Fixed income securities are issued by both, government and private companies.