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The good news is the probability of a recession is down sharply, according to The Wall Street Journal’s latest survey of economists. The bad news is that, for a lot of people, it is still going to feel like a recession. Business and academic economists surveyed by the Journal lowered the probability of a recession within the next year, to 39% from 48% in the October survey.

@British_Airways? How come u downgrade a premium economy passenger at check-in counter on false pretext of overbooking without even paying price difference forget about compensation? I’m told this is a common practice by BA @CSMIA Mumbai," IAS officer Ashwini Bhide said in a post on X. British Airways responded to her post and expressed apologies for the inconvenience caused. “Hi there, if you've been downgraded due to overbooking, you're entitled to any difference in the fare paid.

By Tim Reid and Nathan Layne

Investing.com — Retail sales data and bank earnings will be the highlight of a holiday shortened week as markets await more insights on the health of U.S. consumers. Global leaders gather in Davos, China is to release full year GDP figures and oil prices look set to remain volatile. Here’s what you need to know to start your week.

Davos 2024: The 54th annual meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF) is all set to begin from tomorrow, January 15 and will continue till January 19, 2024 at the local Swiss Alpine School in the center of Davos. The annual meeting will welcome over 100 governments, major international organizations, 1,000 forum’s partners, as well as civil society leaders, experts, youth representatives, social entrepreneurs, and news outlets.

China’s gross domestic product expanded 5.2% for the entirety of last year, even as the economy probably lost some steam in the fourth quarter. Retail sales and industrial output are also seen growing in December from a year earlier against a low base of comparison — in late 2022, the country was dealing with a massive Covid-19 outbreak. The start of the year has brought mixed news.

Tamil Nadu Industries Minister T R B Rajaa will attend the World Economic Forum in Switzerland this week, a few days after the success of securing Rs 6.64 lakh crore of investment commitments at the recent Global Investors Meet in Chennai. This would be the third time that officials of the current DMK government will visit Davos.

Is the Indian Market Index expensive? The easiest answer which comes to ones’ mind is “Yes”. Nifty is at all-time high and trading at ~20x one year forward, hence on an absolute basis in line with its last five years’ average. On a relative basis, it trades at a premium of ~88% to MSCI EM and 26% to MSCI World index, making India arguably one of the costlier markets. However, a) The Quality of Earnings and macro situation is not similar to India’s past b) Indices are not comparable to their historic past. The Indian economy is going from strength to strength with most economists increasing their estimates from 5-6% to 7-8%. If one were to add 4-5% as inflation, Nominal GDP could grow at 11-13%. India is adding US$ US$ 1 trillion in 3 years so assuming a MCap to GDP ratio it can add >US$ 1.25 trillion incrementally every 2-3 years, for the broader markets or over 10-15% p.a. The PAT as % of GDP to has increased from 1.9% lows in F2020 to over 5% currently and we will not be surprised if it doubles in the next 5 years if the profit growth is twice the GDP growth in a blue sky environment. Then one could argue of a higher MCap to GDP multiplier of 1.5-1.75 x. Our bottom up analysis in JM PMS estimates NIFTY 50 to grow at 15% plus p.a., with broader base contribution from many industries as against the financial industry historically. The indices have had material changes in the last decade, almost 17 stocks or 35% of the no. of stocks have been reshuffled in the Nifty 50, and in most cases the stocks which have entered are much higher PEs.

RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Jayanth R Varma said on Sunday. Varma further said he expects a benign outcome in 2024 where inflation comes down and growth remains robust. «The Indian economy has withstood all these shocks (Russia-Ukraine war, Israel-Hamas war, rising oil prices, Houthi attacks) in the last couple of years, and I do not believe that the geopolitical situation will be significantly worse in coming months than what we experienced in the recent past,» he told PTI in an interview.

PTI. In addition to this, Trading activity of foreign investors, global oil benchmark Brent crude and rupee-dollar trend would also guide the movement. "The focus will shift towards Q3 earnings, with key players such as HDFC Bank, HUL, Asian Paints, IndusInd Bank, and Ultratech Cement set to announce their results.

Federal Reserve poised to lead the charge for richer countries. Traders boosted bets on how aggressively the Fed will lower borrowing costs this year after a report showed prices paid to producers continued to fall in December. Even so, the path to taming inflation will be bumpy, as a measure of consumer prices rose by the most in three months. Similar metrics in Norway and Chile eased in December, while Argentina ended the year with inflation above 200%.

real estate has been considered a very safe and stable option to park hard-earned savings. As a standard, across the world, real estate is always going to escalate in value, and over time, as the global economy continues to evolve, investors are increasingly exploring opportunities beyond their borders.

Duvvuri Subba Rao, Former RBI Governor, says “we have to grow fast because as much as we are a large economy, we are also a poor society. India has by per capita income, we are about 139 in the League of Countries. We are the poorest country in the BRICS. We are the poorest in G20. So we have to lift poverty. We have to grow fast. Compared with the rest of the world, it is good but that is not good enough. I believe that for India to grow faster, we want a stable geopolitical environment and a stable environment around the world because if you look at India's performance over the last 25 years, India has had stable high growth when the world was growing.” Everybody is applauding the kind of growth we are seeing. Several agencies including our own RBI Governor have upgraded the India growth outlook very recently in the last Monetary Policy Meet. But the overall global environment is not in very good shape. How challenging will it be for us as an economy to outperform a global gloomy backdrop? Duvvuri Subba Rao: Thank you for that question. We heard it from a number of people including the Prime Minister and the Finance Minister that India is the fastest growing large economy in the world. As you said, the RBI expects the economy to grow by 7 plus percent this year. That is all very good. But you also referred to the global situation. The point is that, yes, we must grow faster.

MSCI China gauge already down more than 4% so far this year. It capped a third straight annual decline in 2023. “The bigger picture is that the weak demand is leading to a deflationary environment, which particularly bodes ill for businesses that cannot achieve higher volumes with lower prices," said Daisy Li, a fund manager at EFG Asset Management HK Ltd.

Maritime Institute of Technology instructor Capt. James Staples, who has personally responded to pirates, breaks down the Houthi Red Sea attacks on 'The Claman Countdown.'

global support for India's permanent membership at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said that sometimes things are not given generously and one has to seize it. «With each passing year, the feeling in the world is that India should be there, and I can feel that support...The world does not give things easily and generously; sometimes you have to take them,» the EAM said on a question regarding a permanent seat for India at the UNSC. The EAM was speaking at 'Manthan': Townhall meeting in Maharashtra's Nagpur. Jaishankar then pointed that India which has showed the capability of conducting a successful G20 presidency, that brought out " New Delhi Declaration" despite of diferences within the member nations,will contribute in the UNSC. «If a country has such a capability, such a country in the UNSC can actually contribute as well,» he added. On the relevance of the UN, the EAM said that in many ways, the limitations of the UN are now showing and that the organisation used to be more relevant in the 1950s-60s. United Nations (UN) is getting more and more ineffective in confronting key issues, he said, «The UN used to be more relevant in the 1950s-60s, but as the number of country's grew, it was easier for the permanent members to dominate the smaller countries.

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said on Saturday. Diplomacy continues and sometimes solutions to difficult situations do not come in haste, he said while speaking on 'Bharat's Rise in Geopolitics' at an event here, during which he took questions from the audience.

Indian economy is warming up to booming economic activity all around. One could hardly miss the crowded stations and airports, hotels going full, and streets bustling with people. Economic activity has been gaining momentum for over a few quarters, with questions on whether this year’s global economic headwinds are strong enough to impact the domestic buoyancy or whether they too will have bottomed out by the end of 2024.

recovered its pre-pandemic output levels. But after revisions to the 2020 and 2021 figures, in September GDP was found to be 0.6% above its pre-covid size rather than 1.2% below it. The Office for National Statistics added almost 2% to its estimate of national income and transformed Britain’s economic performance from that of a global laggard to something more respectable.

President Joe Biden is trying his hand at retail politics

China has reported that its exports grew slightly for a second consecutive month in December even as deflationary pressures continued