India Playbook 2024: Let’s study the micro view
Is the Indian Market Index expensive?
The easiest answer which comes to ones’ mind is “Yes”. Nifty is at all-time high and trading at ~20x one year forward, hence on an absolute basis in line with its last five years’ average. On a relative basis, it trades at a premium of ~88% to MSCI EM and 26% to MSCI World index, making India arguably one of the costlier markets. However, a) The Quality of Earnings and macro situation is not similar to India’s past b) Indices are not comparable to their historic past.
The Indian economy is going from strength to strength with most economists increasing their estimates from 5-6% to 7-8%. If one were to add 4-5% as inflation, Nominal GDP could grow at 11-13%. India is adding US$ US$ 1 trillion in 3 years so assuming a MCap to GDP ratio it can add >US$ 1.25 trillion incrementally every 2-3 years, for the broader markets or over 10-15% p.a. The PAT as % of GDP to has increased from 1.9% lows in F2020 to over 5% currently and we will not be surprised if it doubles in the next 5 years if the profit growth is twice the GDP growth in a blue sky environment. Then one could argue of a higher MCap to GDP multiplier of 1.5-1.75 x. Our bottom up analysis in JM PMS estimates NIFTY 50 to grow at 15% plus p.a., with broader base contribution from many industries as against the financial industry historically.
The indices have had material changes in the last decade, almost 17 stocks or 35% of the no. of stocks have been reshuffled in the Nifty 50, and in most cases the stocks which have entered are much higher PEs.
The stars are aligned! Why FIIs will have to allocate more money to India
Defense
In the Defense sector the Indian government is following the “Atmanirbhar
