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“In our base case, we foresee the Dec '24 Nifty Target at 23,000. We assume the continuation of the political stability and consequent visibility on the policy continuity after the 2024 General Elections,” says Neeraj Chadawar, Head — Fundamental and Quantitative Research, Axis Securities. In an interview with ETMarkets, Chadawar said: “These bull and bear phases of the markets are driven by sentiments in the market. When sentiments are positive, the market will continue to do well. In a fear scenario, the market will fall,” Edited excerpts: We were cruising nicely but suddenly COVID, freight concerns, and potential geopolitical tension struck D-St. What is your take – is it profit booking or will any of the above factors have a material impact? Neeraj Chadawar: The year 2023 was interesting, not only for the Indian equity market but also on the global markets front. We commenced the year with restrained expectations and witnessed notable volatility in the initial months.

Wall Street started 2024 with a slump, giving back some of its powerful gains from the year before

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva likes to boast he had a good first year after returning to the job

The U.S. Treasury has announced that the nation’s gross national debt has surpassed $34 trillion

The word “crisis" is overused, but it accurately describes what Ukraine faces as 2024 begins. According to a recent report in the Washington Post, troops on the front line are running out of ammunition. Artillery shells are being rationed, forcing the Ukrainians to cancel planned assaults and making it hard to hold defensive positions against Russian attacks.

Quiver Quantitative — In a strategic shift for 2024, major financial institutions including JPMorgan (JPM) and Morgan Stanley (MS) are projecting that U.S. investment-grade bonds will outperform speculative-grade, or junk, debt for the first time in four years. This outlook aligns with the anticipation of interest rate cuts and a decelerating economic environment. Bank of America (BAC) echoes this sentiment, favoring higher-rated bonds due to the expected challenges in credit markets, including rising rates, fluctuating earnings, and bond issuance dynamics.

NEW DELHI : India saw a slump in its tea export earnings during April-November 2023 amid regulatory challenges in Iran, a large market, and due to the ongoing Ukraine crisis impacting exports to the CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) and Western European region, latest data from the commerce ministry showed. India exported tea worth $531.63 million between April and November 2023, down from $562 million in the year-ago period, according to official data from the Niryat Portal. Geopolitical disturbances, especially in Middle East and Ukraine, subdued economic conditions along with a drop in export prices have led to a decline in export earnings for the commodity, experts said.

The broader market index— S&P BSE 500 Index—ended the year with close to 25% returns. Singapore-based Samir Arora, founder of portfolio management services (PMS) firm Helios Capital, says that market returns in annualized terms over the last two years are more or less in line with returns over different periods. Arora, whose PMS firm recently ventured into mutual funds in India, says the current market valuations look justified.

Strains on U.S. consumer spending such as rising delinquency rates on credit cards largely indicate that Americans’ debt is returning to pre-pandemic levels, the head of President Joe Biden’s council of economic advisers said.

Markets opened the year on a cautious footing as mounting tensions in the Red Sea drove oil prices higher and weak Chinese data weighed on Asian shares. 

Equity markets have gone up so quickly that they’re highly vulnerable to a pullback if the US economy slips into even a mild recession, according to Royal Bank of Canada’s fund management arm.

By David Lawder

Despite the bullish year, 72% of S&P 500 stocks performed worse than the index in 2023.

Multi-year-high tax buoyancy recorded in the first half of FY24 by the Centre raise questions about how much of the spurt is attributable to higher revenue productivity, and the use of the implicit price deflator.

A strong pick-up in private investment is yet to materialise, and the desirable overall investment rate of 35% is still “some distance away”, says TT Ram Mohan, member, Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council. In an interview with Priyansh Verma, Mohan says that India’s economy in FY25 will grow at a slower rate than the projected 7% in the current fiscal. “It may be appealing to talk of taking our growth rate to 8% but such talk will not take us anywhere,” he notes. On RBI’s monetary policy, Mohan says that India is not in a position to sacrifice growth in order to reach the 4% inflation target in the short-term.

telecom tariffs are amongst the lowest in the world as a percentage of per capita gross national income (GNIpc), and the country's telcos have enough headroom to raise prices by at least 1.5x over the next 4-5 years, industry executives and analysts said. GNIpc is the dollar-value of a country's final income in a year divided by its population.

The numbers represent both an opportunity and a challenge: India has 63 million micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs), contributing almost a third of the country’s GDP and half of its exports, with an equal spread between rural and urban areas, that are mostly short of credit. Given the tailwinds behind India’s economy, the MSME sector will keep growing in size, especially as it is formalized. However, for the sector to reach its true potential, qualitative growth is important.

The International Economic Association (IEA) recently concluded its 20th World Congress in Medellín, Colombia. This triennial event brings together scholars from all over the world to share and discuss the latest developments in economic thinking. This year’s edition underscored the urgency of re-evaluating some of the field’s core assumptions.

Last year, India witnessed a series of extreme weather events, the last one being in Tamil Nadu in December. Chennai and some other districts saw intense flooding after Cyclone Michaung hit on December 4.

Narendra Modi inaugurated and laid down foundation stones of projects worth more than Rs 19,850 related to rail, road, airports, oil, gas and shipping at Tiruchirappalli in Tamil Nadu on Tuesday. He also reached out to the youth in the state on the first day of his two day tour of the state along with Lakshadweep. The prime minister lauded the contribution of Tamil Nadu to the Make in India program, saying the state is a front-runner.

ALSO READ: Why there are long queues at petrol pumps in these cities? Drivers' protest against new hit-and-run law explained In a major relief, a few states said they have adequate fuel stocks. Here's what states said as "panic buying" triggered fears of a shortage of fuel at petrol pumps: A senior Punjab official said there was no need for the public to panic as adequate stock of petrol and diesel is available in the state.