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Maneesh Dangi, Founder, Macro Mosaic Investing & Research, says “we are entering a very longish bond rally and much of the pain of 2022 would unwind in 2024… On currency also, we are perhaps entering a very longish dollar bear market. And there is a small chance that the dollar actually does somewhat well in the US recession, but otherwise in a very-very long US bear market and that will actually help us emerging market currencies pretty significantly.” What a change in stance by the Fed! Were you expecting it? Yes, incidentally, I sort of made this prediction on your channel a week ago. I have made this point a couple of times in the last two months that we are closer to the Fed pivot, closer to a deep dive in US interest rates. People often think that more of today will continue tomorrow but at times, of course, these things change and typically rate these oscillating variables. I was expecting this, I have written about it extensively and I think rates in the US are headed much lower from where they are today. They have already rallied quite substantially but a significantly rally ahead. A US economy cannot absorb such high interest rates and the Fed had to recognise and they did once they have begun to side that inflation is sort of in control right now.

While many sectors and themes have done well in 2023, HDFC Asset Management is positive on four major sectors, entering into 2024. “At the broader level, we are positive on sectors with good prospects of earnings growth and where valuations are reasonable,” said Rahul Baijal, senior fund manager – equities at one of India’s leading asset management companies. In his view, some of the large banks seem well placed given their strong balance sheets, healthy credit growth, good asset quality and reasonable valuations. Telecom and healthcare are the other two sectors that Baijal thinks look good from a medium to long term perspective. Edited excerpts. How does 2024 look up for the Indian equity market? What are the key factors that will drive inflows? Indian equities have done well in 2023 and are likely to end the year on a positive note, with all three market cap segments delivering positive returns. In my view, as we enter 2024, global macro factors may dominate local macro in the first half of the year. The nature of the slowdown in the US and the movement of the US 10-year yield is likely to continue to cause volatility, as has been the case in the recent months. Locally, the economy is in a good shape with healthy macroeconomic fundamentals.

Pramod Gubbi, Founder, Marcellus Investment Managers, says “I expect significant flows to come into India largely through India-dedicated funds. Maybe on the other side of elections perhaps because that is the only bit of uncertainty, maybe the last week's state elections has ironed out that uncertainty a little bit. Allocators would like to see some political stability. So, maybe the big ramp up might come on the other side of the election, but we have already seen the beginnings of those starting with last week's flows. ” We are trying to map the factors which are at play; the sudden change of stance from the Fed last evening has triggered a big global risk-on moment. India is also participating. Is it really something which the market is surprised about or was it largely in the direction the market was expecting? Three rate cut possibilities are now on the table starting mid-next year. I reckon it is not a total surprise. Pretty much at the beginning of April of this year, the best indication has been either the dollar index or FII flows into India as well. We have bottomed out in terms of FII outflows sometime in March 2023. And I think it was the 25th March 2023 Fed meeting which triggered that. In sum, the market started factoring in that we are close to the peak of the interest rate cycle, if not foreseeing some cuts. That has been at play for quite some time.

“Risk management is embedded in our Investment Process. By focusing on price-value gaps, we strive to achieve a balance between risk and reward," Tridip Pathak, Executive Director and Portfolio Manager at Avendus Olivo PMS. In an interview with ETMarkets, Pathak said: “We have an investment process which helps us identify opportunities from our ~145 stock coverage universe at any point in time,” Edited excerpts: Thanks for being part of the segment. You are managing over 600 cr in AUM – please take us through the portfolio performance? As of today, our PMS Strategy has delivered ‘on an aggregate basis’ a CAGR return of 21.7% since inception in August 2020, 19.8% over the last 3 years, 13.7% over the last 2 years and 28.4% over the last 1 year.

Investing.com-- Most Asian stocks rose sharply on Friday, extending recent gains following dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, while some positive economic readings from China also aided sentiment.

2024 after a dismal showing for IPOs this year, noting that interest rates have stabilised globally but they add that elections across the region and in the U.S. could crimp demand. High interest rates, sticky inflation and geopolitical tensions have seen share sales by Asia Pacific (including Japanese) companies sink by a fifth in value so far this year to $229 billion, LSEG data shows.

Yellen said former President Donald Trump's policies toward China left America «more vulnerable and more isolated» in the global economy, a rare jab by her at the front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination. Yellen, at a US-China Business Council event Thursday night, said the Trump administration «failed to make investments at home in critical areas like infrastructure and advanced technology, while also neglecting relationships with our partners and allies that had been forged and strengthened over decades.» Her comments come as the US rebuilds its relationship with the Asian superpower, including a November meeting between US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping in San Francisco. The two nations agreed to curb the production of illicit fentanyl, a deadly component of drugs sold in the United States, and agreed to resume military-to-military communications.

Investing.com-- Chinese industrial production grew more than expected in November, indicating that manufacturing output remained steady even as local and overseas demand continued to trend lower. 

BEIJING (Reuters) -China's new home prices fell for the fifth straight month in November, official data showed on Friday, as the sector still struggles to elbow its way out of a weak market in the face of dampened confidence in demand and investment.

BEIJING (Reuters) — China's industrial output grew 6.6% in November year-on-year, faster than the 4.6% gain in October, and retail sales grew but missed forecasts, adding to signs Beijing's recent flurry of stimulus are helping stabilise the economy.

Investing.com-- Oil prices rose slightly in Asian trade on Friday, and were set to snap a seven-week losing spree on optimism over interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a positive outlook on demand from the International Energy Agency.

By Stella Qiu

By Hernan Nessi

NEW DELHI : The wait for India’s new industrial policy just got longer with the government expected to take a fresh look at it following global supply chain shifts, greater urgency on the green agenda, and geo-political developments, two people aware of the matter said. Late last year, the Union commerce ministry had circulated the draft of Industrial Policy 2022—Make in India for the World, aimed to replace the 1991 policy. The draft aimed to address challenges faced by the industry through policy measures to foster and create an innovative and competitive ecosystem.

Mint in the week gone by. The Sensex closed above 70,000 for the first time on Thursday, taking 551 days to add the last 10,000 points, while inflation rose to a three-month high. Meanwhile, funding slowdown continued for India's tech start-ups, falling to a five-year low.

Mint explains: Investors across the spectrum—retail, institutional, domestic and foreign—have been pouring money into Indian equities. Foreign investors who were on a selling spree in September and October, have begun buying in November and December. Analysts say this is largely fuelled by the BJP’s victory in recent state elections, which is seen as a sign of continued economic reforms.

By Kylie Madry

By Karen Brettell and Samuel Indyk

By Jamie McGeever

By Stephen Culp

In a discussion moderated by Sruthijith KK, the ET CEO Roundtable panellists were not too worried about external headwinds, except for supply chain issues and commodity prices. They were of the view that with its entrepreneurial spirit and a young generation unafraid to take risks, India can forge ahead with the right kind of education and use of technology. What is the one aspect of global turmoil that is impacting your business? And what is one aspect of what India can do to thrive under the circumstances? Kunal Shah: Our industry is kind of limited to the startup ecosystem. The investors are telling us an interesting story —that in our markets, there seems to be this complete distress and we should not be acting.