Maneesh Dangi, Founder, Macro Mosaic Investing & Research, says “we are entering a very longish bond rally and much of the pain of 2022 would unwind in 2024… On currency also, we are perhaps entering a very longish dollar bear market. And there is a small chance that the dollar actually does somewhat well in the US recession, but otherwise in a very-very long US bear market and that will actually help us emerging market currencies pretty significantly.”
What a change in stance by the Fed! Were you expecting it?
Yes, incidentally, I sort of made this prediction on your channel a week ago. I have made this point a couple of times in the last two months that we are closer to the Fed pivot, closer to a deep dive in US interest rates. People often think that more of today will continue tomorrow but at times, of course, these things change and typically rate these oscillating variables. I was expecting this, I have written about it extensively and I think rates in the US are headed much lower from where they are today. They have already rallied quite substantially but a significantly rally ahead.
A US economy cannot absorb such high interest rates and the Fed had to recognise and they did once they have begun to side that inflation is sort of in control right now.
In that light, what is this trajectory of lower rates likely to do for an equity environment globally a prolonged risk on?
Bonds are a clear proxy of what US rates will do. We are entering a very longish bond rally