MSCI Financial News

Chinese stocks extended declines after a brutal session.

By Nell Mackenzie and Wayne Cole

An emerging-market money manager who is outperforming 99% of his peers says equity investors can make money in 2024 whether the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates or not, by focusing on countries undergoing economic transformations.

Asian shares bounced on Friday, buoyed by a rally in regional chipmakers, while the yen was set to end the week with heavy losses as investors pared back bets the Bank of Japan would soon abandon its uber-easy policies. Oil prices were on edge amid worries about increasing geopolitical risks in the Middle East. The U.S. launched new strikes against Houthi anti-ship missiles aimed at the Red Sea on Thursday, and Pakistan conducted strikes inside Iran, two days after Iranian strikes inside Pakistani territory. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rallied 0.9% on Friday, but was still down 2.9% for the week, the biggest weekly loss since mid-August. Taipei-listed shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) surged 5.0% after the chipmaking giant projected 2024 revenue growth of more than 20%.

₹20,384.2 crore of cash shares, turning net sellers of ₹3,852 crore so far this month. The National Stock Exchange’s Nifty marked a life high of 22,124.15 points on Tuesday, when FPIs held a cumulative net bullish position of 79,599 contracts in index futures (Nifty and Bank Nifty). However, they unwound all their bullish bets and turned net short by 4,659 contracts on Thursday, coinciding with the market pulling back almost 3% from the high to close at 21,462.25, thanks to a bloodbath in HDFC Bank Ltd shares.

China and expectations the global rate easing cycle may not come as early as some had initially thought. U.S.

By Stephen Culp

Emerging-market stocks have dropped in the first half of January, something that hasn’t happened since 2016. Sentiment has taken a knock from growing uncertainty about when the Federal Reserve will begin to loosen monetary policy, with traders keenly awaiting a speech by Fed Governor Christopher Waller later Tuesday for insights. Meanwhile, investors are scrambling to price a host of geopolitical events from the Middle East to the US, where markets are weighing a potential return of Donald Trump to the White House. MSCI Inc.’s index of developing-nation stocks slumped 1.2% on Tuesday, the most in almost two weeks, to trade at its lowest since Dec. 14 and extending its January declines to 4%. The currency index was led lower by South Korea’s won and the rand as a gauge for dollar strength rose to a one-month high. The last two comparable bad starts to a year have preceded major emerging-market rallies. In 2016, the January slump followed the first Fed rate hike in almost a decade. Higher US rates sparked a brief capital flight from riskier assets, leading to an 11% plunge by mid-January of 2016. However, things soon turned around as investors chased cheaper valuations, and EM stocks began a two-year, $8.3 trillion rally. Something similar happened in 2009. The Fed dropped benchmark interest rates to near zero in December 2008, but investors fretted over the lingering effects of the global financial crisis and continued to dump emerging-market stocks well into January. Months later, as the US began a bull market, sentiment toward EM improved too, driving the MSCI gauge 75% higher over 2009. Easing Volatility Underpins Case for Emerging-Market Rebound

Indian stocks are trading near their most expensive levels against battered Chinese peers, underscoring a growing divergence in investor preference between the two emerging market leaders. The MSCI India Index trades at a 157% premium over the China gauge on valuations based on forward earnings estimates, just 3 percentage points short of the record reached in October 2022, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. India — long dubbed the “next China” — has emerged as an investor favorite, aided by solid earnings and a booming consumer market. It’s ascent came on the back of a sluggish Chinese market, where problems ranging from rivalry with the US and deflationary pressures led to a third annual decline in the MSCI China gauge.

By Tom Westbrook

After an everything rally that pushed major stock indexes near new highs, some investors just want the good stuff. They are looking for quality stocks, broadly defined as shares of companies with some combination of growth, reliable profits and strong balance sheets. Those run the gamut from recent highfliers such as Microsoft and Nvidia to steady performers such as Coca-Cola and Johnson & Johnson.

By Harry Robertson and Wayne Cole

Is the Indian Market Index expensive? The easiest answer which comes to ones’ mind is “Yes”. Nifty is at all-time high and trading at ~20x one year forward, hence on an absolute basis in line with its last five years’ average. On a relative basis, it trades at a premium of ~88% to MSCI EM and 26% to MSCI World index, making India arguably one of the costlier markets. However, a) The Quality of Earnings and macro situation is not similar to India’s past b) Indices are not comparable to their historic past. The Indian economy is going from strength to strength with most economists increasing their estimates from 5-6% to 7-8%. If one were to add 4-5% as inflation, Nominal GDP could grow at 11-13%. India is adding US$ US$ 1 trillion in 3 years so assuming a MCap to GDP ratio it can add >US$ 1.25 trillion incrementally every 2-3 years, for the broader markets or over 10-15% p.a. The PAT as % of GDP to has increased from 1.9% lows in F2020 to over 5% currently and we will not be surprised if it doubles in the next 5 years if the profit growth is twice the GDP growth in a blue sky environment. Then one could argue of a higher MCap to GDP multiplier of 1.5-1.75 x. Our bottom up analysis in JM PMS estimates NIFTY 50 to grow at 15% plus p.a., with broader base contribution from many industries as against the financial industry historically. The indices have had material changes in the last decade, almost 17 stocks or 35% of the no. of stocks have been reshuffled in the Nifty 50, and in most cases the stocks which have entered are much higher PEs.

MSCI China gauge already down more than 4% so far this year. It capped a third straight annual decline in 2023. “The bigger picture is that the weak demand is leading to a deflationary environment, which particularly bodes ill for businesses that cannot achieve higher volumes with lower prices," said Daisy Li, a fund manager at EFG Asset Management HK Ltd.

Asian shares were cautious on Friday as the escalating conflict in the Red Sea region sent oil prices surging, while slightly higher-than-expected U.S. inflation data did not dent investors' views on early and aggressive rate cuts in the U.S. and Europe.

BEIJING — Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng met with global financial executives Wednesday and pledged to make it easier for foreign institutions to invest in the country, state media said.

By Jamie McGeever

India remains one of the best compounding markets in the region: NIFTY's 20% annual return last year ranks in the 62nd historical percentile over the past 3 decades, and is above the 14% average annual return in 2023 as per Goldman Sachs; Its 8th consecutive year of positive equity returns . Also Read- Goldman Sachs revises Nifty target to 23,500 for 2024, here's why 2. Record outperformance streak vs. MXAPJ- Record outperformance streak versus MXAPJ (MSCI Asia Pacific Ex Japan Index).it was the third successive year (only repeated once during 2005-07).

TCS Q3 Results Preview: Expect muted earnings growth; deal wins, outlook on near-term demand to be in focus In the last two months, there has been a positive transformation in the global macroeconomic landscape. Anticipations include robust growth in the US, earlier-than-expected interest rate reductions in both the US and Asian regions, and a projected mild depreciation of the dollar throughout the year.

By Scott Murdoch

By Wayne Cole