2022 bear market has been the worst on record — Glassnode
Several factors have contributed to making the current crypto bear market the worst ever recorded as most Bitcoin traders are underwater and continue to sell at a loss, according to Glassnode.
Blockchain analysis firm Glassnode’s June 24 report titled A Bear of Historic Proportions outlines how Bitcoin’s current dip below the 200-day moving average (MA), negative deviation from realized price, and net realized losses have conspired to make 2022 the worst in Bitcoin’s history.
The first and most obvious indication of a bear market is when the spot price of Bitcoin (BTC) falls below the 200-day MA and an even more extreme scenario, the 200-week MA. To highlight how rare the current price levels are, Glassnode showed that during the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin has fallen below half the 200-day MA level.
Glassnode also demonstrated that falling below 0.5 the Mayer Multiple (MM) is an exceedingly rare occasion that hasn’t happened since 2015. The MM factors in price changes above and below the 200-day MA to show overbought or oversold conditions. The report states, “Only 84 out of 4160 trading days (2%) have recorded a closing MM value below 0.5.”
Confirming the severity of current market conditions is the spot price falling below the realized price, which has forced traders to increasingly sell their coins at a loss. Glassnode noted that such a cascade effect is “typical of bear markets and market capitulations.”
Glassnode said instances when spot prices trade below the realized price are uncommon, noting that this is only the third time this has happened in the last six years and the fifth time it's happened since Bitcoin’s launch in 2009.
The rarity of this event is illustrated by Glassnode’s model showing that just 13.9% of all
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