2024: A year of riddles

livemint.com:

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. “Interesting" election results in three major world powers. Continued economic uncertainty in another one.

And continued geopolitical tensions in yet another. To cut rates or not, the constant question. The threat and opportunities posed by the two letters, AI.

In all this, 13%+ returns on the NIFTY 100 and 24%+ on the mid-cap index. Sitting at the beginning of 2024, this is perhaps not the obvious outcome and a reminder of the lines from Anand: “Zindagi kaisi hai paheli hai. Kabhi yeh hasaye, kabhi yeh rulaye." For all we attempt to predict, economic events remain unpredictable, the market reaction to event outcomes even more unpredictable (remember 4th June!), and traditional relationships between macro variables and markets don’t always hold true.

In case you thought markets were the only ones delivering pahelis, spare a thought for the movies: The highest-grossing Hindi language film was a so-called small-budget horror comedy sequel,Stree 2, and the highest-grossing Hindi film in aggregate was a dubbed Southern film, Pupsha 2. Here is 2024 personal finance, with a touch of help from film quotes: My advice for 2025: Don’t forecast. Be bi-focal: Know the potential of long-term returns in this decade in India, and accept the reality of the short-term drama. Portfolios should remain like a good thali—multi-asset in nature, with good simple products that are liquid, in quantities that your risk appetite can digest.

Forecasting both Nifty returns and box-office outcomes in the short term is futile, so enjoy the show as it unfolds. Happy New Year and happy investing. The views are personal. Radhika Gupta is the managing director and chief executive at Edelweiss Asset Management Ltd.