Indian stock market made an all-time high back in September 2023, when the Nifty crossed 20,000, investors and traders alike have been hopeful of a new bull market. Unfortunately, their hopes have not borne fruit yet. The Indian benchmark indices have been rangebound for quite some time now.
No matter how bullish retail investors seem to be on the broader market of midcaps and small-caps, the Nifty is not in a mood to oblige. What explains this? Well, in the Indian stock market today, there are two competing narratives. The first narrative is that we are already in the middle of a massive bull market that will last at least a few more years.
Those who believe this narrative are looking at every correction as a buying opportunity. The second narrative is that the bull market began after the covid crash in early 2020. It has been nearly 3.5 years since then.
Thus, the bull market can't go on for much longer, especially when interest rates have gone up so much. This narrative calls for caution. To be honest, there are many investors on both sides.
This explains the indecisiveness in the market. While mid-caps and small-caps have gone up a lot, the benchmark indices have not. This signifies the caution of the second group.
At the same time, the first group have bought stocks on every dip. This is why we have not seen a major correction or a bear market. Retail investors have played a crucial role in this.
As long as they are willing to buy stocks, a full-fledged bear market is unlikely. This is not an easy question to answer. One answer is that in the long term, India will always be in a bull market.
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