



A massive tax shortfall and slower growth loom, but the Centre's budget math still works
The budget is around the corner, and the government is staring at a massive tax shortfall. To make matters worse, nominal GDP growth is likely to be slower than anticipated in 2025-26.However, neither of these two will put the government in an uncomfortable position, as non-tax revenues have exceeded expectations, and the fiscal deficit calculation will benefit from statistical revisions.The government’s tax collections have grown only 3.3% in April-November, sharply lower than the 10.8% growth aimed for in the budget.
A number of factors will lead to the shortfall: an optimistic income tax projection (13.1% growth projected in the Budget) despite massive revisions, slow corporate tax collections due to declining nominal GDP, and the revenue hit from cuts in goods and services tax (GST) that was not accounted for in the budget last year.Economists expect this could lead to a tax shortfall of ₹1.5-2 trillion in FY26. Simply put, it means 0.3% of fiscal slippage.
The good news is that the government has managed to diversify its revenue source: dividends and profits transferred by the public sector have been robust this year as well. By November, they were already 104% of the Budget estimates, totalling ₹3.4 trillion.Additionally, a turnaround in disinvestment receipts has made a comeback after struggling for several years.
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