A slow burn: Ukraine war sees Sweden warm to NATO membership
For decades the conventional wisdom of security policy in the Nordic region held that out of the two countries still not NATO members, Sweden would be most likely to apply first, and then, Finland would follow along.
After all, a similar pattern had occurred in 1995 when both countries joined the European Union, and anyway, opinion polls in Sweden had always been more favourable to joining the military alliance, with support in Finland languishing around 20-25% for as long as polling had been carried out on this question.
But in the last few months, conventional wisdom has been turned on its head.
Even before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there's been something of a role reversal between the Nordic neighbours: with Finland being notably more eager in terms of politics and public opinion to apply for NATO membership; and Sweden, in particular Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson and her Social Democrat minority government, lagging behind.
"Traditionally there's been three 'vetoes' against NATO membership in Sweden. One has been popular opinion, one has been Finland, and one has been the Social Democrats," says Oscar Jonsson, a researcher at the Swedish Defence University in Stockholm.
"Needless to say public opinion, and Finland, is shifting rapidly and causing a lot of pressure on the Social Democratic Party," he tells Euronews.
This year there's been a frantic flurry of international diplomacy to make sure the Swedes are on the same page as the Finns on a possible NATO membership application.
That has included a phone call from US President Joe Biden and Finnish President Sauli Niinistö to Magdalena Andersson from the White House; a visit by Andersson to Helsinki for discussions with Finland's PM Sanna Marin; and a regular
Read more on euronews.com
