A wargame shows just how vulnerable Europe is to a Russian attack

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. MARIJAMPOLE, Lithuania—European governments are preparing for war with Russia. A newly released wargame suggests they aren’t ready.

A Russian incursion, or outright invasion, into countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the European Union has become more likely because of Europe’s tensions with President Trump over Greenland, Ukraine, trade and other matters, many European security and political leaders say. They point out that Russia has switched to a war economy, focusing national resources on a rearmament program and military recruitment that goes well beyond the needs of the campaign in Ukraine. The key question is: How soon? The earlier belief in Berlin and other capitals was that Russia wouldn’t be able to threaten NATO until 2029 or so.

There is now a growing consensus that such a crisis could come much sooner—before Europe, which is expanding its own investment in defense, is in a position to fight back. “Our assessment is that Russia will be able to move large amounts of troops within one year," the Netherlands Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans said in an interview. “We see that they are already increasing their strategic inventories, and are expanding their presence and assets along the NATO borders." President Vladimir Putin wants to resurrect the glories of the Russian Empire, making countries that were once part of it, such as the Baltic nations of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, obvious targets.

All of them have been members of the EU and NATO for two decades. “Anxiety is very visible in my country, but at the same time, we are preparing to defend ourselves," said Deividas Matulionis, Lithuania’s national security adviser. While Lithuania expects the U.S.