

After a strong Q3, Tata Steel looks set for a firmer Q4
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. Tata Steel Ltd reported a 15% year-on-year rise in consolidated Ebitda, adjusted for forex translation, to ₹8,200 crore in the December quarter (Q3FY26), even as revenue grew a more modest 6% to ₹57,000 crore. Lower raw material costs, gains from cost-takeout initiatives and higher volumes helped offset continued losses in the UK operations.
On a standalone basis, revenue rose 9% to ₹35,600 crore. Volumes climbed 14%, but average realizations fell 4.5%, limiting adjusted Ebitda growth to 5% at ₹7,900 crore. Ebitda per tonne declined 8% to ₹13,090.
The outlook for the March quarter (Q4) is stronger, supported by higher domestic steel prices following the imposition of safeguard duty in December. Management expects realizations to improve by about ₹2,300 per tonne in Q4, partly offset by a $15 (around ₹1,350) per tonne increase in coking coal prices. Volume growth is expected to remain in line with Q3.
Europe could provide a pricing lever from the second half of the year. The European Union’s carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) took effect on 1 January, requiring importers to purchase carbon certificates on steel shipments. A nearly 50% cut in tariff-free steel import quotas and a higher import duty of 50%, from 25% earlier, will come into force on 1 July.
Following these changes, European steel prices are expected to improve. Nuvama Institutional Equities has raised its FY27 and FY28 Ebitda estimates for Tata Steel by 5% and 7%, citing higher steel prices and improved profitability in the Netherlands. The UK may also move to impose safeguard measures to protect its domestic steel industry, which remains under severe financial stress.
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