After two years of war, Ukrainians are becoming pessimistic
Ukraine war Wavering economic and military support from the West means things are likely to get worse. Ukrainian officials are increasingly nervous about the figures: cashflow, mobilisation numbers, weapons. Serhiy Marchenko, the finance minister, says he believes his country’s Western partners will come good on this year’s non-military budget of $37bn—Ukrainian taxes pay for military expenses—but he is worried about what happens next.
“We just haven’t had assurances about 2025." Ammunition shortages are already an issue, and will get better only if Europe learns to produce weapons again. Russia has its own problems with resources and manpower, but it retains a relative size advantage. In a war of attrition, that counts.
“While the fat man shrinks, the thin man disappears," a Ukrainian intelligence official says, citing a well-known local proverb. Mykhailo Fedorov, a deputy prime minister and champion of military tech, says the only way forward is self-reliance. “We have no choice but to show strength.
But I’m optimistic. We’ve got a clear advantage in effectiveness and speed." Creative thinking allowed Ukraine to score unlikely victories in the Black Sea, he argues. During 2023, Ukraine sank a fifth of the Russian Black Sea fleet and established a shipping corridor in the face of constant bombardment.
The same approach has seen a huge increase in the production of cheap and capable fighting drones. Ukraine boasts nearly a dozen long-distance models able to strike targets more than 600km away. One long-range drone manufacturer confidently predicts that 2024 will see the war move deep into central regions of Russia.
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