Analysis-Russia's optimistic fiscal plans risk budget revenue shortfall
By Darya Korsunskaya and Alexander Marrow
(Reuters) — Russia could miss its 2024 revenue target and be forced to hike business taxes if the rouble proves stronger than expected in the budget and optimistic economic assumptions fall short, analysts warned, as Moscow spends more on its war in Ukraine.
Budget plans published in September envisage Brent crude prices averaging $85 per barrel next year — more pessimistic than a Reuters poll forecast — and a Urals price of $71.3.
But Russia's Accounts Chamber, which oversees budget execution, warned on Monday there were risks the Urals price would fall below $60 in 2024-2026.
Meanwhile, the West is keen to stop Russia from circumventing its $60-per-barrel oil price cap. Washington last week imposed the first sanctions on owners of tankers carrying Russian crude priced above that level.
The government is also relying on the currency remaining weak, which — while fanning inflation and eroding people's savings — raises the rouble value of energy revenues received in dollars.
«Next year's budget is very ambitious,» said Expert RA Chief Economist Anton Tabakh.
«The deficit problem has been solved by the weak rouble. If the rouble appreciates strongly then the budget will be in a difficult position.»
The rouble leapt off more than 18-month lows to the dollar last week after President Vladimir Putin ordered the mandatory sale of some foreign currency revenues for certain exporters.
It now trades at around 97 per dollar, softer than the budget's average forecast for 2024 of 90.1. The currency is historically weak, however, having rarely traded above 80 before Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Finance Minister Anton Siluanov on Monday highlighted the risks of any strengthening,
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