Angst mounts over Germany’s green transition
When Robert Habeck, co-leader of the Green party and the economy tsar in Germany’s ruling coalition, floated a bill last spring that mandated replacing gas and oil boilers with cleaner heat pumps, he got more heat than he bargained for. Tabloids screamed his “heat hammer" would push millions into debt. Whipped-up fury against “Green fascism" boosted ratings for the hard-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.
The minister spent much of the summer tweaking his bill. His patience paid off. In early September the Bundestag passed it by a cosy 397-275 votes.
Yet the new law may prove a sign of things to come. For one thing, the spring storm exposed just how fast and how low enthusiasm for environmental initiatives can sink the moment they threaten wallets. Mr Habeck’s compromise also showed that despite much progress in Germany’s Energiewende, the now two-decade-old national effort to shift entirely to clean energy remains a steep uphill climb.
Indeed, at current rates it looks increasingly doubtful that Germany will reach its target of net carbon neutrality by 2045. Home heating is a small part of the puzzle, but well illustrates the challenge. Some 80% of Germany’s buildings heat using fossil fuels, contributing about 15% of total CO 2 output.
The draft law, which would have forced adoption of electric heat pumps starting next year, aimed to cut this in half by 2030. A longer time-frame and wider exemptions under the new law mean it will reach perhaps 75% of this goal, says Mr Habeck’s ministry. And that sounds optimistic.
Trade groups say there are few skilled pump-fitters. Older buildings will need costly insulation upgrades. And the complexity of state subsidies for the pumps, which can cost upwards of €20,000
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