ASER and India’s demographic dividend: Is a new generation ready for the future?
The seventy-fifth Republic Day is a good occasion on which to reflect on our future outlook as a nation. The 21st century is India’s century, some say. There are aspirations that by 2050, when India celebrates its 100th Republic Day, it will be one of the largest economies in the world and a developed country in per- capita income terms.
How well prepared are we to achieve these goals? This question is addressed here through the lens of the Annual Survey of Education (Rural) 2023 Report (ASER 2023) released last week. The ASER basic survey of children in the age group of 3-16 years is recognized as a very reliable and up-to-date assessment of the status of education in rural India. In 2016, instead of the basic survey, ASER launched a new series, ‘Beyond Basics,’ which surveyed the education status of children in the 14-18 age group.
It is the group which is moving beyond the eight years of basic education guaranteed under the Right to Education Act. This age group has been surveyed again in 2023 with nearly 35,000 respondents drawn from randomly selected villages in 28 districts across 27 states. This age cohort is at the entry point of their working life.
They and the next few batches to follow will constitute the backbone of the Indian workforce over the next 25 years. Whether or not India can leverage its ‘demographic dividend’ to meet its developed-country aspirations depends critically on the capacity and skill levels of these age cohorts. ASER 2023 provides several findings to address this issue, some disappointing and others more hope-inspiring.
Of survey respondents at age 14, nearly 96% have enrolled for further education beyond the basic level. That ratio drops to 66% by age 18. Most are studying in classes X,
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