Asia shares slip, yen firms as Japan GDP data revised up
By Wayne Cole
SYDNEY (Reuters) — Asian share markets followed Wall Street lower on Monday while the dollar looked vulnerable ahead of a reading on U.S. inflation that could hasten, or delay, the start of global rate cuts.
The yen edged higher as data released on Monday showed Japan was not, in fact, in recession after economic growth was revised up to an annualised 0.4% for the December quarter.
Reuters reported a growing number of Bank of Japan policymakers are warming to the idea of ending negative rates this month on expectations of hefty pay hikes in this year's annual wage negotiations.
Tuesday's U.S. consumer price index (CPI) report for February is forecast to rise 0.4% for the month and keep the annual pace steady at 3.1%. Core inflation is seen rising 0.3%, which will nudge the annual pace down to the lowest since early 2021 at 3.7%.
The slower core would complement the softer conditions seen in the February payrolls report, where unemployment hit a two-year high of 3.9%, and would keep the Federal Reserve on track to cut rates in the next few months.
«We continue to expect four 25bp cuts in the Fed funds rate this year, starting in June,» analysts at Goldman Sachs wrote in a note. «However, the soft employment report increases the odds that the FOMC begins the easing cycle in May instead.»
«We expect that developed market central banks will lower policy rates by 128bp on average over the next 12 months,» they added. «We also expect that emerging market central banks will cut rates by 190bp on average.»
Futures imply about a 30% chance of a Fed cut in May and 70% for a first move in June.
Chinese price data out over the weekend showed a welcome bounce in inflation to 0.7% in February, though producer prices
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