Industry fund heavyweight AustralianSuper will reject the $18.7 billion takeover offer from Brookfield and partner EIG for Origin Energy, firming up pressure on the North American consortium to raise their bid despite no rival contender in sight.
The position of AusSuper, Origin’s biggest shareholder with 13.67 per cent, which is supported by several smaller shareholders, creates a real risk that the deal – which has been already agreed by the target’s board – will fail to win the 75 per cent approval it needs at a shareholder vote set for next month.
Origin CEO Frank Calabria admits the company cannot match Brookfield’s ambitious renewable energy investment schedule if the takeover fails. Oscar Colman
AusSuper said the current offer “remains substantially below our estimate of Origin’s long-term value”, and took issue with the assessment from an independent expert that deemed the transaction is within its estimated range for the target.
The industry fund commissioned Frontier Economics to review the assumptions that the independent expert, Grant Samuel, used in its assessment and said that Frontier is also of the opinion that the assumptions “are unrealistically low”.
“The IER [independent expert report] valuation multiples are significantly below the multiples from a number of recent relevant transactions and the trading multiples of relevant comparable companies,” AusSuper said in the statement.
“Origin has a unique portfolio of market-leading energy assets and an advantaged position to capture value from the energy transition.”
The bid from Brookfield and EIG is valued at about $8.81 a share, but Origin shares have been trading above that range since the merger was approved by the competition regulator.
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