Australia to fall well short of renewables target: analysis
Australia is set to fall well short of its 2030 target for 82 per cent renewable energy, with extra measures needed to move it past 64 per cent, according to research firm Rystad Energy, which expects Origin’s Eraring coal power station to have to run for several years longer to prevent spiking prices.
Even with all available options made full use of, renewable energy could only climb into the low 70 per cent usage at most by the end of the decade, said David Dixon, senior renewables research analyst in Australia for the Norway-based consultancy.
Energy Minister Chris Bowen said the situation was “more positive than you might think”. Oscar Colman
The expected shortfall is due primarily to the well-flagged lagging build-out of the transmission grid, which means new wind and solar farms cannot connect into the system as planned.
“We have to push Eraring back… Realistically anything that’s dispatchable capacity to replace it needs to have started construction by now,” Mr Dixon told The Australian Financial Review.
He warned that the consequences of shutting Eraring before critical replacement supply is in place, was “massive, massive volatility” in wholesale prices, while blackouts could not be ruled out, depending on weather and plant outages.
Rystad’s forecast that Eraring will be needed until 2027-2029 contrasts with Origin’s target to close the 2880-megawatt generator in NSW – the country’s largest – in August 2025.
But the installation of replacement clean generation is running well behind what is needed to replace coal power. This is primarily due to delays in installing the new transmission needed to connect it but also slower-than-anticipated approvals of new wind and solar farms, and construction problems at the
Read more on afr.com
