When Bangladesh makes international news, it’s usually for tragedies: devastating cyclones, massive industrial accidents, grisly terrorist attacks. Even by those dismal benchmarks, the latest story from Bangladesh stands out—the deaths this month of more than 200 people during a government crackdown on student protests. The violence may signal the beginning of the end for 76-year-old Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, under whose increasingly autocratic rule the country has turned into a de facto one-party state.
But those expecting liberal democracy to flower in a post-Hasina Bangladesh will almost certainly be disappointed. A return to instability, economic stagnation and widespread Islamist violence against religious minorities appears more likely. Bangladesh’s nearly 175 million people make it the world’s fourth most populous Muslim-majority nation, behind Indonesia, Pakistan and Nigeria.
Shortly after Bangladesh gained independence, Henry Kissinger famously called it a “bottomless basket case." But under Ms. Hasina, who has ruled since 2009 in her second stint as prime minister, the country has fashioned a more hopeful story as a fast-growing economy. Bangladesh’s economic growth has averaged 6.5% over the past decade.
The poverty rate—defined as the share of the population living on less than $2.15 a day—fell from 11.8% in 2010 to 5% in 2022, according to the World Bank. The United Nations estimates that Bangladesh will graduate from the list of “least developed countries" in two years. The country is ahead of India on life expectancy and female literacy.
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