The United States inflation rate has slowed down, with May recording a 4% rate--the lowest yearly figure since March 2021.
The drop in inflation may prompt the U.S. Federal Reserve to avoid raising interest rates during its upcoming Wednesday conference, prompting market observers to closely monitor the situation.
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The monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI), a broad measure of inflation, only increased by 0.1%, falling short of the projected 0.3% increase, and further fueling speculation about the interest rate hike hiatus. However, other indicators such as the PCE and core CPI suggest a potential rise in inflation by July.
Futures markets placed a 78% bet on the Fed leaving interest rates in the 5-5.25% range earlier this week, given the jobless rate's climb from 3.4% in April to 3.7% in May. This likelihood has since surged to 94% in light of the CPI's unveiling.
Since March 2022, the Fed has raised interest rates ten times to stabilize prices after a period of near-zero rates and large-scale government bond purchases designed to spur the US economy.
With key indicators pointing towards an economic cooldown, many market watchers now anticipate that June will see a cessation of rate hikes.
However, it's worth noting that the Fed's favored inflation metric, the personal consumption expenditure index (PCE), hasn't reacted to the uptick in rates as positively as its CPI counterpart.
In the previous quarter, PCE's average growth was 4.3%, while wage growth was a mere 0.3%. In addition, the core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.4% for three consecutive months up until May.
This data suggests that the Fed may hold off on rate
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