Bihar: Caste survey vs Modi factor to decide Lok Sabha numbers
Bihar is going to be different this time because of the sheer weight of the caste census politics unleashed and the Domino-effect it is likely to have on the fates of CM Nitish Kumar, the RJD, Left and Congress. The 'Mahagathbandhan' of RJD, JD(U), Congress and the Left is trying to recreate Mandal politics through the census data, with the state government hiking the quota for OBCs, SC and STs up to 65%.
Whether the backward castes will bite this bait and vote for the mahagathbandan is still a hazy proposition.
The key factor to be weighed is whether this caste census politics is strong enough to tip the popularity that PM Narendra Modi enjoys with the Bihar electorate, especially among the youth, women and the beneficiaries of central government schemes, and the likely impact the Ayodhya temple inauguration will have on the heartland votes.
2024 will decide whether Nitish Kumar remains relevant in state politics or will fade into oblivion. For the BJP, this would be an election to check its own strength — whether it can have dominance in Bihar politics even without the support of the JD(U).
Past and Present
The past three Lok Sabha elections were fought in three different political scenarios. In 2014, the three leading parties — BJP, JD(U) and RJD — contested separately.
In the triangular contest, BJP along with smaller parties, won 31 of the 40 seats in Bihar. In 2019, BJP and JD(U) contested together along with smaller partners while RJD contested with the Congress. The NDA won 39 of the 40 seats.
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