Bitcoin bulls may have to wait until 2024 for next BTC price 'rocket stage'

cointelegraph.com:

Bitcoin (BTC) may track sideways for another two years before reigniting its bull run, new data argues.

In a tweet on April 6, veteran trader Peter Brandt highlighted historical patterns suggesting that hodlers will have to wait until 2024 for their next moonshot.

Bitcoin has surprised analysts with its performance over the past year, as the highly anticipated "blow-off" top in Q4 2021 was much lower than expected.

After BTC/USD lost over 50% of those modest new all-time highs, the debate around the relationship of price to Bitcoin's four-year halving cycles changed.

The market, as Cointelegraph reported, was used to a macro price top coming once per four-year cycle, specifically the year after each of Bitcoin's block subsidy halving events.

Now, however, price action is less predictable, and while the factors controlling it are many and varied, it does not necessarily mean that bulls will get their break at a different point in the current cycle.

Brandt's data shows that the next impulse wave for Bitcoin may not be until May 2024 — which almost exactly lines up with the next block subsidy halving.

Historically, this would be a year too early for a blow-off top, but could still deliver a 10X price increase based on historical patterns which go beyond halving cycles.

"The past two times BTC advanced 10X or more required an average of 33 months before the next stage of the rocket kicked in," Brandt explained.

In terms of what could keep Bitcoin suppressed until then, analysts have pointed the finger overwhelmingly at macro triggers.

Related: Bitcoin slides below $44K in April first as trader warns ‘something is off’ with BTC

Central bank tightening, if successful, should logically pressure risk assets, while a prolonged period of