Bitcoin is discounted near its ‘realized’ price, but analysts say there’s room for deep downside
There are early signs of the "dust settling" in the crypto market now that investors believe that the worst of the Terra (LUNA) collapse looks to be over. Viewing Bitcoin's chart indicates that while the fallout was widespread and quite devastating for altcoins, BItcoin (BTC) has actually held up fairly well.
Even with the May 12 drop to $26,697 marking the lowest price level since 2020 multiple metrics suggest that the current levels could represent a good entry to BTC.
The pullback to this level is notable in that it was a retest of Bitcoin’s 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $26,990. According to cryptocurrency research firm Delphi Digital, this metric has historically “served as a key area for prior price bottoms.”
And it wasn’t just Bitcoin that had a rough day on May 12. The stablecoin market also saw its highest level of volatility and deviation from the dollar peg since the start of the Terra saga, with Tether (USDT) experiencing the largest deviation among the major stablecoin projects as shown in the chart below from blockchain data provider Glassnode.
All four of the top stablecoins by market cap have managed to return to within $0.001 of their dollar peg, but the confidence of crypto holders in their ability to hold has definitely been shaken by the events of the past two weeks.
Related: Do Kwon summoned to parliamentary hearing following UST and LUNA crash
As a result of the market pullback, the price of Bitcoin is now trading the closest it has been to its realized price since 2020.
According to Glassnode, the realized price has historically “provided sound support during bear markets and has provided signals of market bottom formation when the market price trades below it.”
Previous bear markets
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