Bitcoin Might Retreat Before Rallying to 100K: Key Levels to Watch for Dip-Buyers

investing.com:

Three weeks ago, see here, we found for Bitcoin (BTC/USD), based on our Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) analyses,

“We don’t expect that [the March 4th] intra-day pullback of 14.8% was all BTC/USD will experience before rallying to the $100-200K level, but that a deeper multi-day correction to around ~$54±2K should be around the corner.”

BTC/USD rallied for another eight days to $73672, dropping to $60782 on March 20th. See Figure 1 below. Since corrections (2nd, 4th, and B-waves) always move in at least three waves, W-a, -b, and -c, we expect that low to be grey W-a of the green W-4, and the current rally to be grey W-b, with a final grey W-c to ideally $54-57K yet to follow.

The latter target zone matches the 38.20% retracement of the green W-3 rally at $55080 well—a typical retrace target for a 4th wave. Moreover, the current rally from the March 30th low is, so far, still only three (orange a, b, c) waves up right into the ideal grey W-b target zone after three orange waves down: see the blue oval in Figure 1 below.

Figure 1: The Daily Chart of BTC/USD with Several Technical Indicators and a Detailed EWP Count.

In our last update, we looked at previous corrections and found that

“During the Bull run of 2020-2021, BTC/USD experienced five 13.5 to 31.5% multi-day pullbacks, shown in red, whereas it has experienced four 20.6-22.8% multi-day pullbacks so far since the 2022 low. Thus, on average, BTC experiences a 22 to 23% multi-day pullback before the uptrend resumes.”

In greater detail, in early January 2021, see Figure 2 below, BTC/USD experienced a ~18.4% drop in less than one-and-a-half days (red), rallied 48.3% in four days (purple), dropped 31.5% over the next two weeks (thick red), to then stage a >100% rally (thick