Bitcoin price predictions abound as traders focus on the next BTC halving cycle

cointelegraph.com:

Terra's recent collapse has been repeatedly singled out as the main source of weakness affecting crypto assets, but it's much more likely that a combination of factors are behind the start of this current bear market.

At the same time that the market was reeling from the Terra saga, the 2-year mark for the next Bitcoin (BTC) halving was also crossed and this is a metric some analysts have used as an indicator for the end of a bull market.

As shown on the chart above, previous cycles have seen BTC hit a peak followed by a price decline that first drops below the 50-day moving average (MA) then a culminating capitulation event that thrusts the price below the 200-day MA.

Many traders were thrown off by the lack of a blow-off top in the most recent bull market cycle because this phenomenon has typically marked the late stage of an exhausted trend.

Traders also questioned the validity of the popular stock-to-flow model after BTC failed to hit $100,000 before the end of 2021.

During previous market cycles, BTC was trading well above the S2F model at this stage in its progression with the model variance in the positive. Currently, the model variance is giving a reading of -0.86 while the price of BTC is well below the S2F line.

This lack of a blow-off top has prompted some traders to stand by earlier calls for one final price run-up that will see BTC hit $100,000 before entering an extended bear market, but that remains to be seen.

Looking forward to being bearish af after this wave up over 100k that I’m expecting completes. Seeing the way sentiment is now during a mid-cycle correction means the correction that corrects the entire bull cycle from 3k to 100k+ is going to be absolutely brutal. $BTC

While some still hold out hope for