Bjorn Lomborg: The world abandons hydrocarbons at the risk of worsening food insecurity

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories.For years, climate campaigners have claimed that our food supply is under grave threat from climate change caused by excessive fossil fuel use. Ironically, the war in West Asia is highlighting that the much bigger food challenge for the world is not having enough access to fossil fuels.Today, half of all the calories we consume are only possible because they are produced with artificial fertilizers, overwhelmingly from natural gas.

Without fossil fuels, half the global population would suffer a severe lack of food.The conflict in West Asia and blockade of the Strait of Hormuz are not just driving up global energy prices. About a quarter of the world’s fertilizer normally passes through the strait, and the impasse is holding back much of the fertilizer that could help grow the food needed to feed the world.

The UN estimates that this could drive up fertilizer prices 15-20% and push at least another 45 million people into acute hunger. Yet, for the last few decades, we’ve been told ad nauseam that fossil fuel use behind global warming was the big challenge to the world’s food supply.

That claim is almost entirely wrong.This climate-apocalyptic argument was only ever given any attention because we lost sight of the marvel of one of humanity’s greatest achievements in the modern age: our ability to tackle food security.Over the past 125 years, food has become dramatically cheaper and more abundant, thanks to soaring productivity and innovation. Far from a looming apocalypse, the data reveals a story of remarkable progress, with climate change posing only a relatively minor hurdle.